ICOS stock: A ‘bad bet?’

Many investors in ICOS Corp. have griped about the stock’s returns since 2004. The numbers aren’t pretty: As recently as November 2003, the stock traded above $47 a share. Since then, it’s treaded water mostly below $25 a share. Today, it closed at $21.85.

That’s a loss of about 54 percent. That creates grumbling, especially since all this has happened since Cialis won FDA approval and went on to generate more than $1 billion cumulatively in sales.

But face it: investors will always grumble. After all, it’s their money at stake. Now, however, a national financial columnist for Bloomberg is talking down ICOS’ stock, http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&%09s=1045855934868&c=MGArticle&cid=1137835670523&path=!business!columnists or http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060430/BUSINESS/604300392/1003.

What does this mean for ICOS? Who knows. An underperforming stock — over time — may have trouble attracting big-time investors. That could have an effect on the company’s financial state over the long term. On the other hand, it may not.

I’ll note that Paul Latta, a Seattle-based analyst who I quote A LOT when I write about ICOS, still has a “buy” rating on the stock. He was pleased with the first quarter sales of Cialis, which I reported on here last month, http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/06/04/21/100bus_cialis001.cfm, and below in an earlier blog post.

ICOS will report its own first quarter earnings on Thursday. Maybe there will be something in those figures to rev up the company’s stock.

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