How many 787 jets will the Boeing Co. deliver this year and next?
That’s likely to be one of the top questions executives will be asked when the company reports earnings Wednesday.
After more than three years of delays, Boeing is poised to hand over its first Dreamliner to the 787’s launch customer, All Nippon Airways, by the end of September. While first delivery is on everyone’s mind, aerospace analysts are more interested in the number of 787s the company will deliver by the end of 2012.
Three months ago, during Boeing’s first quarter earnings report, company executives expressed confidence in a plan to hand over between 12 and 20 Dreamliners to customers by year’s end. However, analysts are voicing a growing doubt about the company’s ability to hit that target.
In an update on his Leeham Co. blog last week, analyst Scott Hamilton noted that 787 deliveries in 2011 could be as few as three to five due to rework that Boeing is having to do to get its already-built 787s to meet the conditions needed for delivery. In April, Boeing officials had said that initial deliveries would include some 787s that had been recently produced, therefore requiring less rework.
During Boeing’s last earnings call, analysts asked for more details about the company’s plan to ramp up production to 10 787s monthly in 2013.
So far, Boeing executives have shied away from giving an outline of production milestones over the coming year.
Expect more pressure for a detailed schedule on Wednesday.
Analysts also will be watching for updates on Boeing’s updated 747-8 program.
The company also hopes to make first deliveries of the first 747-8 freighter and passenger planes this year.
Boeing previously planned to deliver 12 to 20 of the revised-design jumbos this year. But Hamilton noted that the delivery total could fall to five.
Last week, Boeing shocked industry observers by saying it will re-engine the popular 737 rather than come out with an all-new jet, as executives previously said they were inclined to do. Boeing saved an order with American Airlines by re-engining but gained the scorn of analysts like RBC Capital Markets’ Rob Stallard, who thinks Boeing’s customers want a new jet.
“A completely new narrowbody, with twice the efficiency savings of the (Airbus A320 new engine option jet), would probably have been a big threat to Airbus post-2020. Instead, we have status quo at best,” Stallard wrote in a note to clients.
Boeing’s board hasn’t approved the re-engined 737.
And Boeing executives certainly will be asked about the move Wednesday.
In terms of numbers, analysts expect Boeing to report roughly 96 cents per share in earnings.
That’s down from the same quarter in 2010, when Boeing reported earnings per share of $1.06.
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