Analyst Scott Hamilton has this interesting post about the possibility of the U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tanker contest award slipping to 2012.
The Air Force is expected to name a winner of the $35 billion contest between the Boeing Co., EADS and duo U.S. Aerospace and Antonov later this year. The award date already has slipped from late summer to Nov. 12 (a slide the Air Force initially denied).
Hamilton notes that Morgan Stanley analyst Heidi Wood has warned the Air Force might not announce a contract winner until 2011. Hamilton points out that whenever the award is announced, the loser likely will protest the Air Force’s decision, prolonging the process into 2012.
By that time, it is possible Boeing will have lost one of its most adamant supporters in Congress. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash, is in a tough battle to retain her seat with Republican Dino Rossi. Murray holds a key seat in the Senate’s appropriations committee. Of course, Boeing would still have support in the House from Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., who holds a powerful position in Defense appropriations.
Boeing supporters aren’t the only ones who are growing more skeptical of the tanker process and politics it involves.
In this editorial, the Pensacola News Journal says the Gulf Coast can’t count on EADS winning the tanker and creating jobs there.
EADS’ supporters in Congress “don’t have the same clout” as Boeing’s backers, Winslow Wheeler, a former Senate and GAO staffer who now serves as a senior fellow at the Center for Defense Information think tank, told the publication.
“If for some reason Boeing loses, the Boeing porkers like Patty Murray will go nuts,” Wheeler said. “If it’s EADS that loses, Sen. Sessions and others will scream and yell, but I’d be very surprised if they had the raw votes to alter the decision.”
The Birmingham News’ editorial staff also said residents of Alabama shouldn’t get too optimistic over the tanker contest:
Don’t misread us. There’s nothing wrong with state officials’ unbridled enthusiasm. If EADS were to win the contract, its Mobile plant would anchor a burgeoning aerospace corridor in Gulf Coast states. We just hope all of our overly optimistic officials turn out to be right.
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