As Irma fades, unpredictable Jose eyes $19 trillion in property

By Brian K. Sullivan / Bloomberg

Don’t underestimate Jose. The meteorological gods seem to be working against the hurricane as Irma’s successor lumbers over the Atlantic Ocean. But it’s so far out — more than 950 miles from New York — that it’s too soon to call the all clear.

“If it is going to be a threat, it is probably a threat next week,” said Rob Carolan, a meteorologist at Hometown Forecast Services in Nashua, New Hampshire. For now, though, “Jose is having very serious issues.”

Hurricanes can’t move under their own power, and the high-pressure system directing Jose Tuesday was pushing and shoving it into making a loop around the central Atlantic, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Carolan said that could have the benefit of robbing the cyclone of muscle as it circles back over its own wake, churning up the cold water that saps storms’ strength.

At the same time, the loop could easily turn Jose to point directly at North America, a maneuver that would put about $18.8 trillion in property from Maine to Florida in a potentially devastating shadow.

“That sort of behavior is difficult to model,” Masters said. “Especially when you don’t have an accurate picture of conditions.”

It may be days before the forecasting image becomes clearer, thanks in part to Irma, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide, a risk modeler based in Boston. Irma threw out what are called Rossby Waves, which can stretch for thousands of miles. They joggled the upper atmosphere and messed with the steering currents around Jose.

Computer models have had Jose passing harmlessly out to sea — or crashing ashore anywhere from North Carolina to Nova Scotia.

The experts just don’t have enough data yet. While satellites can look down, the Atlantic isn’t dotted with weather stations that can send balloons 22 miles (35 kilometers) into the sky to sample conditions. And it’s those measurements that make the models accurate.

The U.S. often uses Air Force Reserve and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pilots and crews, called Hurricane Hunters, to fly into storms and drop instruments and launch Coyote drones into the winds.

One of those hunters discovered that at its peak at 11 p.m. New York time on Sept. 8, Jose’s winds reached 155 miles per hour, making it a Category 4 storm and a near rival of Irma. The National Hurricane Center anticipates that Jose may remain a hurricane this weekend.

Then it could end up in a patch of ocean that would allow it to draw in warm water and become more formidable.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has already claimed at least 100 lives and inflicted estimated damage of at least $135 billion from Texas and Florida to across the Caribbean. Harvey also temporarily shut about 25 percent of oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and 10 percent of U.S. refining capacity. Irma subjected Florida’s citrus groves to fruit losses that are just now being tallied.

If Harvey and Irma offer any lesson, it’s that a storm like Jose needs to be taken seriously.

“It could very well intensify again,” Sousounis said. “We cannot turn our heads away from Jose.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Nation-World

FILE - Britain's Queen Elizabeth II looks on during a visit to officially open the new building at Thames Hospice, Maidenhead, England July 15, 2022. Buckingham Palace says Queen Elizabeth II is under medical supervision as doctors are “concerned for Her Majesty’s health.” The announcement comes a day after the 96-year-old monarch canceled a meeting of her Privy Council and was told to rest. (Kirsty O'Connor/Pool Photo via AP, File)
Queen Elizabeth II dead at 96 after 70 years on the throne

Britain’s longest-reigning monarch and a rock of stability across much of a turbulent century died Thursday.

A woman reacts as she prepares to leave an area for relatives of the passengers aboard China Eastern's flight MU5735 at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, Tuesday, March 22, 2022, in Guangzhou. No survivors have been found as rescuers on Tuesday searched the scattered wreckage of a China Eastern plane carrying 132 people that crashed a day earlier on a wooded mountainside in China's worst air disaster in more than a decade. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
No survivors found in crash of Boeing 737 in China

What caused the plane to drop out of the sky shortly before it was to being its descent remained a mystery.

In this photo taken by mobile phone released by Xinhua News Agency, a piece of wreckage of the China Eastern's flight MU5735 are seen after it crashed on the mountain in Tengxian County, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Monday, March 21, 2022. A China Eastern Boeing 737-800 with 132 people on board crashed in a remote mountainous area of southern China on Monday, officials said, setting off a forest fire visible from space in the country's worst air disaster in nearly a decade. (Xinhua via AP)
Boeing 737 crashes in southern China with 132 aboard

More than 15 hours after communication was lost with the plane, there was still no word of survivors.

In this photo taken from video provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the nation in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 27, 2022. Street fighting broke out in Ukraine's second-largest city Sunday and Russian troops put increasing pressure on strategic ports in the country's south following a wave of attacks on airfields and fuel facilities elsewhere that appeared to mark a new phase of Russia's invasion. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
Ukraine wants EU membership, but accession often takes years

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request has enthusiastic support from several member states.

FILE - Ukrainian servicemen walk by fragments of a downed aircraft,  in in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Feb. 25, 2022. The International Criminal Court's prosecutor has put combatants and their commanders on notice that he is monitoring Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has jurisdiction to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity. But, at the same time, Prosecutor Karim Khan acknowledges that he cannot investigate the crime of aggression. (AP Photo/Oleksandr Ratushniak, File)
ICC prosecutor to open probe into war crimes in Ukraine

U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet confirmed that 102 civilians have been killed.

FILE - Refugees fleeing conflict from neighboring Ukraine arrive to Zahony, Hungary, Sunday, Feb. 27, 2022. As hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians seek refuge in neighboring countries, cradling children in one arm and clutching belongings in the other, leaders in Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania are offering a hearty welcome. (AP Photo/Anna Szilagyi, File)
Europe welcomes Ukrainian refugees — others, less so

It is a stark difference from treatment given to migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa.

Afghan evacuees disembark the plane and board a bus after landing at Skopje International Airport, North Macedonia, on Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2021. North Macedonia has hosted another group of 44 Afghan evacuees on Wednesday where they will be sheltered temporarily till their transfer to final destinations. (AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski)
‘They are safe here.’ Snohomish County welcomes hundreds of Afghans

The county’s welcoming center has been a hub of services and assistance for migrants fleeing Afghanistan since October.

FILE - In this April 15, 2019, file photo, a vendor makes change for a marijuana customer at a cannabis marketplace in Los Angeles. An unwelcome trend is emerging in California, as the nation's most populous state enters its fifth year of broad legal marijuana sales. Industry experts say a growing number of license holders are secretly operating in the illegal market — working both sides of the economy to make ends meet. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)
In California pot market, a hazy line between legal and not

Industry insiders say the practice of working simultaneously in the legal and illicit markets is a financial reality.

19 dead, including 9 children, in NYC apartment fire

More than five dozen people were injured and 13 people were still in critical condition in the hospital.

15 dead after Russian skydiver plane crashes

The L-410, a Czech-made twin-engine turboprop, crashed near the town of Menzelinsk.

FILE - In this March 29, 2018, file photo, the logo for Facebook appears on screens at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York's Times Square. Facebook prematurely turned off safeguards designed to thwart misinformation and rabble rousing after Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 elections in a moneymaking move that a company whistleblower alleges contributed to the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, invasion of the U.S. Capitol. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)
Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram in hourslong worldwide outage

Something made the social media giant’s routes inaccessable to the rest of the internet.

Oil washed up on Huntington Beach, Calif., on Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021. A major oil spill off the coast of Southern California fouled popular beaches and killed wildlife while crews scrambled Sunday to contain the crude before it spread further into protected wetlands. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
Crews race to limited damage from California oil spill

At least 126,000 gallons (572,807 liters) of oil spilled into the waters off Orange County.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.