1 million in U.S. may have swine flu

At least 1 million Americans have contracted the novel H1N1 influenza, according to mathematical models prepared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while data from the field indicate that the virus is continuing to spread even though the normal flu season is over and that an increasing proportion of victims are being hospitalized.

Meanwhile, the virus is continuing to spread through the Southern Hemisphere, infecting increasing numbers of people and at least one pig.

Nearly 28,000 laboratory-confirmed U.S. cases of the virus, also known as swine flu, have been reported to the CDC, almost half of the more than 56,000 cases reported to the World Health Organization.

But Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with CDC, told a vaccine advisory committee meeting in Atlanta on Thursday that standard models of viral spread indicate that many times that number have been infected.

Although 1 million seems like a high number, between 15 million and 60 million Americans are infected by influenza virus during a normal flu season.

At least 3,065 of those infected in the U.S. have been hospitalized and 127 have died. Very young children are most likely to be infected, Finelli said, but older patients seem to suffer more. The average age of swine flu victims is 12, the average age of hospitalized patients is 20 and the average age of those who have died is 37, she said.

The normal seasonal flu virus has virtually disappeared from the U.S., as would be expected. But the H1N1 virus is continuing to spread and now accounts for 98 percent of all cases.

“So far, it doesn’t look like transmission is declining at all,” Finelli said.

The spread is highest in New England and the Northeast, and it is beginning to take its toll. Dr. Andrew Doniger, director of public health for Monroe County, N.Y., which includes the city of Rochester, said hospitals, emergency rooms and laboratories in the county are being overwhelmed by “very high volumes” of patients. He called on those who have mild symptoms to self-medicate at home.