Timed to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the catastrophic 1906 San Francisco earthquake this week, researchers have calculated the possible death and destruction that could occur if another temblor of equal strength struck the Bay Area today.
The worst-case scenario posed was as many as 3,400 dead, mostly crushed by buildings; up to 700,000 people displaced or homeless; 130,000 structures extensively damaged or destroyed; and immediate losses exceeding $125 billion.
The new study, conducted by a structural engineer and co-workers and titled “When the Big One Strikes Again,” uses the best estimates of the size and strength of the event on April 18, 1906, a magnitude 7.9 quake and ensuing firestorm that killed more than 3,000 people and destroyed swaths of San Francisco.
The computer simulation study concludes that a repeat of the 1906 quake could be more devastating than the original because the region is now more densely settled, the value of the real estate is much higher and the population is 10 times larger.
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