A dire forecast on oil supplies

By Bruce Stanley

Associated Press

UPPSALA, Sweden — Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval, an international group of petroleum specialists predicted at a meeting on Friday.

They hope to persuade oil-dependent countries including the United States to stop what they view as squandering the planet’s fossil fuels.

Americans, as the world’s biggest consumers of energy, could suffer a particularly harsh impact on their lifestyle, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University in Uppsala, Sweden.

"There is no factual data to support the general sense that the world will be awash in cheap oil forever," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who helped advise President Bush’s campaign on energy policy. "We desperately need to find a new form of energy."

Colin Campbell, a retired geologist who helped organize the conference, argued that governments are too caught up in short-term issues to focus on the long-term threat of depleted oil reserves. Oil companies prefer not to talk about it for fear of upsetting their investors, he said.

Their warning defies the more commonly held view that global crude reserves will remain plentiful for decades. Critics say similar predictions of scarcity at the time of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo didn’t come true.

"There’s a lot of phony baloney in there," said economist Michael Lynch of the U.S. business forecasting firm DRI-WEFA. "A lot of prominent geologists just laugh at this."

The dispute centers on the precise timing of what is variously described as "peak oil" or the "big rollover" — the predicted date when existing oil production, together with new discoveries of crude, can no longer replenish the world’s reserves as quickly as consuming countries deplete them.

Roger Bentley, head of the Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London, said predictions made in the 1970s were basically correct. About 50 countries, including the United States, have already passed their point of peak oil output, he said.

The world’s total reserves of crude, excluding oil found in shale and tar sands, are estimated to exceed 3 trillion barrels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and other conventional sources of data.

Campbell said the true figure for reserves is closer to 2 trillion barrels, based partly on what he described as overstated reserves reported by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations.

He played down the significance of new oil discoveries in the Caspian Sea region of central Asia and in deep waters off the coasts of Brazil and West Africa and in the Gulf of Mexico. Now that geologists have effectively surveyed the globe for crude, Campbell and others at the conference said they doubted that any giant new oil fields still await discovery.

Also, unlike Lynch, Campbell believes that improvements in the technologies used to explore and drill for oil will increase production by only modest amounts.

As a result, Campbell forecast that oil output would peak by 2010 — at least 26 years sooner than the rollover point predicted in a U.S. government study prepared in 2000.

Simmons, the banker, said Americans will have to embrace coal and even nuclear power once fossil fuels pass their global peak in production. Higher and more volatile prices are sure to accompany the transition period, he said.

"You couldn’t get serious people focusing on this issue, and we’re going to pay dearly for it," Simmons said.

Copyright ©2002 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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