Analysis paints pessimistic picture of Iraq

WASHINGTON – A highly classified National Intelligence Estimate assembled by some of the government’s most senior analysts this summer provided a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq.

The National Intelligence Council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the war-torn country and determined – at best – the situation would be tenuous in terms of stability, a U.S. official said late Wednesday.

At worst, the official said, were “trend lines that would point to a civil war.” The official said it “would be fair” to call the document “pessimistic.”

The intelligence estimate, which was prepared for President Bush, considered the window of time between July and the end of 2005. But the official noted that the document, which spans roughly 50 pages, draws on intelligence community assessments from January 2003, before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent deteriorating security situation there.

The latest assessment was undertaken by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials who provide long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence community but report to the director of central intelligence, now acting CIA Director John McLaughlin. He and the leaders of the other intelligence agencies approved it.

The estimate contrasts with public comments of Bush and his senior aides who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. “We’re making progress on the ground,” Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month.

The document was first reported by The New York Times on its Web site Wednesday night.

It is the first formal assessment of Iraq since the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on the threat posed by now-fallen Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

A review of that estimate released this summer by the Senate Intelligence Committee found widespread intelligence failures that led to faulty assumptions that Iraq had banned weapons.

Senate Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday denounced the Bush administration’s slow progress in rebuilding Iraq, saying the risks of failure are great if it doesn’t act with greater urgency.

“It’s beyond pitiful, it’s beyond embarrassing, it’s now in the zone of dangerous,” said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent.

Foreign Relations Committee members vented their frustrations at a hearing where the State Department explained its request to divert $3.46 billion in reconstruction funds to security and economic development. The money was part of the $18.4 billion approved by Congress last year mostly for public works projects.

The request comes as heavy fighting continues between U.S.-led forces and a variety of Iraqi insurgents, endangering prospects for elections slated for January.

“We know that the provision of adequate security up front is requisite to rapid progress on all other fronts,” said Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Ron Schlicher.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said circumstances in Iraq have changed since last year. “It’s important that you have some flexibility.”

But Hagel said the shift in funds “does not add up in my opinion to a pretty picture, to a picture that shows that we’re winning. But it does add up to this: an acknowledgment that we are in deep trouble.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Customers enter and exit the Costco on Dec. 2, 2022, in Lake Stevens. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Costco stores could be impacted by looming truck driver strike threat

Truck drivers who deliver groceries and produce to Costco warehouses… Continue reading

Two Washington State ferries pass along the route between Mukilteo and Clinton as scuba divers swim near the shore Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Mukilteo, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Ferry system increases ridership by a half million in 2024

Edmonds-Kingston route remains second-busiest route in the system.

The second floor of the Lynnwood Crisis Center on Friday, Feb. 7, 2025 in Lynnwood, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Funding gap leaves Lynnwood without a crisis center provider

The idea for the Lynnwood crisis center began in 2021 after a 47-year-old died by suicide while in custody at Lynnwood Municipal Jail.

Three seriously injured after head-on collision on Highway 522

The crash between Monroe and Maltby happened around 4:30 p.m. on Monday.

Fernando Espinoza salts the sidewalk along Fifth Avenue South on Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Think this is cold, Snohomish County? Wait until Tuesday

Tuesday could bring dangerous wind chill during the day and an overnight low of 19 degrees

Robin Cain with 50 of her marathon medals hanging on a display board she made with her father on Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Running a marathon is hard. She ran one in every state.

Robin Cain, of Lake Stevens, is one of only a few thousand people to ever achieve the feat.

People line up to grab food at the Everett Recovery Cafe on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Coffee, meals and compassion are free at the Everett Recovery Cafe

The free, membership-based day center offers free coffee and meals and more importantly, camaraderie and recovery support.

Devani Padron, left, Daisy Ramos perform during dance class at Mari's Place Monday afternoon in Everett on July 13, 2016. (Kevin Clark / The Herald)
Mari’s Place helps children build confidence and design a better future

The Everett-based nonprofit offers free and low-cost classes in art, music, theater and dance for children ages 5 to 14.

The Everett Wastewater Treatment Plant along the Snohomish River on Thursday, June 16, 2022 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett water, sewer rates could jump 43% by 2028

The rate hikes would pay for improvements to the city’s sewer infrastructure.

The bond funded new track and field at Northshore Middle School on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024 in Bothell, Washington. (Courtesy of Northshore School District)
Northshore School District bond improvements underway

The $425 million bond is funding new track and field complexes, playgrounds and phase one of two school replacements.

The Washington State Department of Licensing office is seen in 2018 in Seattle. (Sue Misao / The Herald)
Drivers licensing offices to close Feb. 14-17

Online services are also not available Feb. 10-17. The Washington State Department of Licensing said the move is necessary to upgrade software.

Pharmacist Nisha Mathew prepares a Pfizer COVID booster shot for a patient at Bartell Drugs on Broadway on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Everett lawmakers back universal health care bill, introduced in Olympia

Proponents say providing health care for all is a “fundamental human right.” Opponents worry about the cost of implementing it.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.