As the roiling waters of redistricting settle, it’s clear three congressional districts will have berths in Snohomish County with incumbent Democratic congressmen setting anchor in two of them.
To no one’s surprise, the way the Washington State Redistricting Commission redrew the map of the 2nd Congressional District gives Rep. Rick Larsen greater job security.
Commissioners removed communities in east Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties with histories of favoring Republicans and replaced them with cities and towns in south Snohomish County which more often tilt Democrat.
It’s left the Grand Old Party candidate-challenged and its leaders searching for someone to step up to prevent Larsen from getting a free pass to re-election.
The panel also realigned the 7th Congressional District of uber-liberal Rep. Jim McDermott to take in Woodway and Edmonds. While these are new areas for the Seattle representative, there’s little chance a Republican can emerge who is able to unseat the 12-term congressman.
But that third seat is up for grabs, and Republicans’ best chance of snagging it may lie with Snohomish County Councilman John Koster.
What commissioners extracted from Larsen’s district — what some in the GOP fondly dub Koster Country — was put in a reconfigured 1st Congressional District stretching from the Canadian border to King County.
There’s no incumbent running, as Rep. Jay Inslee vacated the seat to vie for governor. That’s created a free-for-all with nine announced candidates. Three are Republicans — Koster, Greg Anders of Bellingham, and James Watkins of Kirkland.
All three Republicans are actively campaigning and make a strong case for themselves. In handicapping the race, several Republican Party insiders give Koster the early nod at finishing in the top two in the August primary because his name is known by a greater number of voters and he’s shown he can mount a viable congressional campaign.
But, they say, if he advances, his ability to close the deal with a win in November hinges on him conducting a different kind of campaign than that which resulted in defeat to Larsen in 2010.
Koster had victory in reach then faltered at the end because Larsen succeeded in framing him as too socially conservative and Koster couldn’t undo the political damage. It cost Koster independent and moderate voters who are a pivotal bloc in close contests.
This year, if Koster reaches the general election he will certainly face the same type of attack from whatever Democrat emerges as his opponent. And those independent and moderate voters again will play a decisive role.
So the best thing Koster can do now is to figure out how to prevent those views he knows to be controversial from wafting into the foreground of the campaign.
Many voters will be meeting him for the first time. He wants to make an impression on them as a popular, pragmatic Snohomish County councilman, not a politician guided by his social conservatism.
He’s done it in the course of earning three terms on the council. If he can replicate that winning formula, he may capture the seat in Congress that’s eluded him for so long.
If not, a political opportunity like this might not come again for a decade.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield’s blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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