Democrats expect major gains in Congress

WASHINGTON — The news just keeps getting worse for Republicans in this year’s campaigns for Congress.

When New York Rep. Tom Reynolds announced he was retiring Thursday, that made it 26 current GOP lawmakers who are calling it quits, opening up chances for Democrats this November. Only seven seats are being given up by the Democrats, who see bright opportunities to fatten their majority in the House — and the Senate as well.

That doesn’t even count this month’s shocker in Illinois, where Democrat Bill Foster won a special election in the district long represented by Republican former Speaker Dennis Hastert. Democrats say Foster’s win to replace the retiring Hastert is a sign of things to come in the general election, when all House seats are on the line.

Things are not much better for the GOP on the Senate side, where Democrats feel confident of picking up retiring Republican John Warner’s seat in Virginia and are campaigning hard for GOP seats being vacated in Colorado and New Mexico. Republicans have failed to recruit top-tier candidates to challenge Democratic senators in GOP-leaning Montana, South Dakota and Arkansas.

The Democrats’ current Senate margin effectively is 51-49, including two independents who align themselves with the Democratic Party.

Money is pouring into the party’s coffers, and some are talking about making a serious run for as many as 50 House seats now held by Republicans. That’s an astounding number considering most incumbents usually coast to re-election.

Less-partisan analysts suggest a Democratic pickup of 10 to 20 seats. The current House breakdown: Democrats 233 seats, Republicans 198, four vacant.

Foster’s win in Has­tert’s old district “sent a political shock wave across the country,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congres­sional Campaign Committee. Republicans called it an isolated contest, but Van Hollen said, “The ingredients that helped Foster are elsewhere,” in competitive races throughout the nation.

They include “a great discontent with the Bush administration’s economic policies and the war in Iraq, and the connection between the two,” Van Hollen said. He said Democrats will tie all Republican candidates to President Bush, and will argue that GOP presidential candidate John McCain solidly backs Bush policies on the war and economy.

Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider said there are 40 districts now held by Republicans that have “a better Democratic performance” record, based on recent elections, than does the Illinois district won by Foster.

Five days after his victory, in another blow to the GOP, the Republican committee that raises money and recruits candidates for House races announced that a former treasurer may have stolen almost $1 million and falsified records over several years. The FBI is investigating.

Then Reynolds announced Thursday he will not seek a sixth term in his western New York district. Reynolds, 57, chaired the House GOP’s election efforts in 2004 and 2006.

Campaign money, usually a Republican strong suit, is flowing to the Democrats this season. In the most recent reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $34 million on hand, compared with $4 million for its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Republicans insist matters are not so dire. Nearly all the GOP-held House seats that Democrats are targeting are in Republican-leaning districts.

“Republicans are going to continue voting Republican,” said NRCC spokeswoman Karen Hanretty. In fact, she said Republican candidates have good chances of regaining seats the party lost in 2006 in California, Florida and Arizona.

As for fundraising, Hanretty resorted to a line that Democrats often employed before winning control of Congress. “They’re the majority party,” she said, “and when you’re the majority, you raise more money. Campaigns are about more than money.”

In the Senate, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner is a clear front-runner in the race for that state’s open seat. And two Democratic House members named Udall — Mark in Colorado, Tom in New Mexico — are running well-financed campaigns for seats being vacated by Republicans Wayne Allard in Colorado and Pete Domenici in New Mexico.

Democrats also are waging strong Senate campaigns to oust Republican incumbents in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon and Maine. Their biggest worry is Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. She struggled to win her first two Senate races and is scrambling again this year.

Democrats’ highest hopes for knocking off a Senate Republican incumbent focus on John Sununu in New Hampshire. He is locked in a rematch with former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who lost to him by four percentage points in 2002.

Anti-war and anti-Bush sentiments run fairly high in New Hampshire, and the Senate race will be among the nation’s most closely watched. Democratic strategists say Sununu has fallen out of step with the state. Sununu supporters say he will remind voters of Shaheen’s struggles with school funding and other issues as governor.

Voters “will think twice before giving her the promotion she is looking for,” said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.