WASHINGTON — Global warming isn’t to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist.
Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.
Ever since Hurricane Katrina in December 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming’s wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.
Another group of experts in studying hurricanes attribute the recent increase to a natural multidecade cycle.
The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.
The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbors — anywhere west of Puerto Rico — will drop by 30 percent because of wind factors.
The biggest storms — those with winds of more than 110 mph — would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent.
Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27 percent.
It’s not all good news from Knutson’s study, however.
His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson’s study says.
And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength.
Hurricanes for 2008
Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic, and a Colorado State University forecast predicts a roughly 50 percent more active than normal storm season this year. NOAA puts out its own seasonal forecast Thursday.
In a normal year about 10 named storms form. Six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes.
On average, about five hurricanes hit the United States every three years.
Associated Press
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