In third of US, more whites are now dying than being born

The Washington Post

In around one-third of U.S. states, more white people are now dying than being born — a major shift that is expected to continue and has significant implications for government policy.

Seventeen states — home to 121 million people, or roughly 38 percent of the country’s population — had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites in 2014, up from just four states a decade earlier, according to research released Tuesday by the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy.

The trend, which cuts across blue and red states and can be found in both urban and rural areas, is expected to expand to more states in the near future, including Vermont, South Carolina, Tennessee and Oregon, the report said.

White “natural decrease” — when births fail to keep up with deaths — is due largely to aging of the baby-boom generation and declining white fertility rates, particularly since the Great Recession, the report found.

Nationally, the ratio of non-Hispanic white births to deaths is nearly at par, at 1.04 births for every death. The ratio is much higher for minority groups, particularly among Latinos, whose rate is 5.4 births for every death. The ratio for blacks is 1.94 births for every death, and for Asians, it is 1.75 births.

The influx of immigrants from minority groups, who tend to be in their childbearing years, helps fuel the birthrate.

The findings are particularly trenchant in the wake of an election that was often framed in terms of white Americans feeling threatened by the demographic ascendance of minority groups. While the country is still about two-thirds white, the proportions are shifting. 2011 was the first year in which more minority babies than white ones were born, and demographers expect the country to become majority minority in 2044.

Its growing young immigrant population puts the U.S. on a different path than European countries, which are facing a looming crisis due to their aging populations.

As aging white Americans rely more on Social Security and Medicare, they are expected to be shored up by the influx of young minorities into the workforce.