WASHINGTON — In vertical bars of blue, green, gray and red, a briefing chart prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency says what Army Gen. David Petraeus won’t.
Insurgent attacks against Iraqi civilians, their security forces and U.S. troops remain high, according to the document obtained by the Associated Press. It is a conclusion that the well-regarded Army officer who is the top U.S. commander in Iraq is expected to try to counter when he and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, testify before Congress today and Tuesday.
More than four years into a conflict initially thought to be a cakewalk, the war has become a battle of statistics, graphs and conflicting assessments of progress in a country of more than 27 million people.
The defense intelligence chart makes the point, with figures from Petraeus’ command in Baghdad, the Multinational Force-Iraq. Congressional auditors used the same numbers to conclude that Iraqis are as unsafe now as they were six months ago; the Bush administration and military officials also using those figures say that finding is flawed.
For every positive step, a negative one follows.
Progress by the Iraqi army is offset by the failures of the national police, which an independent assessment rates as “operationally ineffective.”
Nearly 77 percent of Iraqis want the militias in Iraq to be dissolved, according to the GAO, yet their government has not written legislation to do so.
While the rights of Iraq’s minority political parties are protected in the legislature, the GAO said violence against minority religious and ethnic groups continues “unabated” in most areas of Iraq.
The report used the defense intelligence’s countrywide figures to conclude that the average number of daily attacks against civilians has remained “about the same” during the past six months.
The auditors could not determine if sectarian violence had declined since the start of the president’s troop increase.
The agency’s findings are contentious because the Bush administration and military officials in Iraq have said security has improved over the same period because of the additional 30,000 U.S. troops in Baghdad and other trouble spots.
In July, the White House, citing “trends data” from Petraeus’ command, said sectarian violence, particularly in Baghdad, had declined since the troop increase began in February.
“There’s a difference of opinion a strong difference of opinion as to whether or not sectarian violence has decreased,” David Walker, who heads the auditing agency, said last week.
In a letter to his troops Friday, Petraeus acknowledged progress has been “uneven,” but said sectarian violence has fallen considerably. The number of attacks across the country has declined in eight of the past 11 weeks, he said. The letter from Petraeus does not provide any figures.
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency chart, there were 897 attacks against Iraqi civilians in January and 808 in July. There were 946 attacks against Iraqi security forces in January and 850 in July.
Charts from the Multinational Corps-Iraq, the war-fighting unit headed by Army Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, tell a different story with bar graphs and arrows. The charts contain no numbers and they focus on Baghdad, where the bulk of the additional U.S. troops went.
The number of roadside explosions in the Iraqi capital dropped sharply between June and the beginning of August, according to one chart; so, too, have monthly car bomb attacks.
One chart shows a decline in monthly casualties in Baghdad, a trend that U.S. military officials attribute to the “diminishing effectiveness on the part of the enemy,” according to the chart.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
