JERUSALEM — Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Europe, beginning today in Britain, will force him to balance the demands of his right-leaning ruling coalition against an international front opposed to Israeli settlements on lands Palestinian claim for a future state.
Netanyahu is likely to hear concerns about settlements from all three of the key people he is slated to meet in Europe this week: British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the representative of Israel’s closest ally, U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell.
Ignoring their wishes and those of the broader international community will demand a diplomatic cost Israel can ill afford to pay.
But at home, Netanyahu’s partners in an unruly governing coalition are pulling him in the opposite direction and are suspicious of any sign of compromise. Crossing them could unravel his hold on power.
In recent weeks, some of Netanyahu’s allies have done their best to nudge him rightward. A group of Cabinet ministers paid a supportive visit to an unauthorized settlement outpost in the West Bank — even though Netanyahu has promised to remove such wildcat settlements — and called on the prime minister to ignore President Barack Obama’s call to stop building homes for Jews on land the Palestinians want for an independent country.
Netanyahu’s four-day visit to London and Berlin is likely to showcase the balancing act on which his political fortunes depend.
Israel’s friends abroad and Netanyahu’s domestic allies will be carefully watching him to see who gets shortchanged.
“It’s very clear that his goal is not to lose his coalition and not to fight with Obama,” said Israeli political analyst Hanan Crystal. “The question is, how do you stop settlements while preventing the toppling of the government?”
The answer, Crystal said, is likely to be apparent soon when Netanyahu announces some form of compromise with the U.S. and “winks” at his hard-line allies at home. “He’s an expert at winking,” Crystal said.
Netanyahu spokesman Nir Hefetz said there was no expectation that the settlement issue would be resolved at Wednesday’s meeting with Mitchell.
“The prime minister expects there to be certain progress, but in our estimate no breakthrough is expected,” Hefetz told reporters traveling with the Israeli leader.
He said Netanyahu would insist on Israel’s right to build housing for Jews in east Jerusalem, captured by Israel from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East war and now claimed by the Palestinians for the capital of a future state.
As for West Bank projects, Israeli government officials say a compromise being discussed could see Israel freeze building except for 2,500 units currently under construction. They spoke on condition of anonymity because details of the talks between Israel and the U.S. are secret.
The number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank — home to some 2.5 million Palestinians — has more than doubled since the mid-1990s and now stands at around 300,000.
Netanyahu has compromised some since taking office in March, after winning an election on a hard-line platform.
He endorsed the formation of a Palestinian state, a major reversal after years of opposing the idea, albeit with strict conditions. Last week, Netanyahu’s housing minister said Israel had temporarily stopped approving new building projects in the West Bank.
Obama responded that he was “encouraged by some of the things I am seeing on the ground,” an indication, perhaps, that the sides are getting close to a compromise.
But the halt in approvals for new building was seen by Netanyahu’s critics as little more than a maneuver. The settlement watchdog group Peace Now said Sunday that there had been no real slowdown in construction and that settlers could keep building indefinitely, using plans that have already been approved.
Netanyahu has also taken steps to improve life for Palestinians in the West Bank. With the territory enjoying a period of calm, some Israeli military checkpoints have been lifted, permits for importing raw materials are being granted, and there are other signs that life there is assuming a semblance of normalcy.
Hefetz said the government saw the possibility of resuming long-stalled peace negotiations with the Palestinians “within two months.”
The Palestinians, however, have refused to renew talks until the Israelis freeze settlement construction.
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