BOSTON – John Kerry narrowly trails President Bush in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House as he prepares to draw up his plan to topple the Republican incumbent at the Democratic National Convention this week.
Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College math that favors Bush.
“It’s a tough, tough map. I think it’s going to be a close race,” said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore’s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry.
“But looking back four years, we’re much stronger now. I think we’re going into this convention in great shape,” he said.
With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column, for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states, for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls and interviews with strategists across the country.
Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and 271 electoral votes – one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.
Since then, reapportionment has added electoral votes to states with population gains and taken some from states that are losing people. The result: The states Bush won are now worth 278 electoral votes, and the state’s Gore won are worth 260.
Even if Kerry consolidates Gore’s states – no easy task – the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes away from Bush’s column to close the electoral vote gap.
Kerry’s best prospects may be in five tossup states that Bush won in 2000: Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia.
Winning either Ohio’s 20 electoral votes or Florida’s 27 would do the trick.
Bush easily won Ohio in 2000, but its lagging economy puts the state in play. Kerry must still reduce Bush’s advantage among conservative rural voters. Florida should favor Bush a bit more than in 2000, partly because of its relatively strong economy, but the war in Iraq has helped keep the race close.
Nevada and West Virginia have a combined 10 electoral votes, enough to close the gap. New Hampshire, which neighbors Kerry’s home state of Massachusetts, has four.
West Virginia voted Democratic for decades until Bush made values an issue in 2000; Kerry is stressing that theme this year. In Nevada, an influx of Hispanics and the administration’s push to use Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site make the state tougher for Bush than in 2000.
Six of the 11 tossup states were won by Gore: Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But the margin of victory was just a few thousand votes in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin, and Kerry has his work cut out to keep them.
Of those three states, Bush likes his chances best in Wisconsin, where he is targeting rural voters in a bid to widen the electoral gap by 10 votes.
Kerry added another Republican-leaning state to his target list when he chose Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate. Aides are divided over whether North Carolina will remain a battleground until Nov. 5, but its 15 electoral votes are too tempting to ignore.
Missouri, a traditional battleground, recently moved to the Bush-leaning category and is being written off by some Democrats. The Kerry campaign reduced its ad campaign in the state after polls showed him consistently 4 to 6 percentage points behind Bush, with little room for improvement.
The four-term Massachusetts senator has begun to gather strength in traditionally Democratic states such as Maine, Minnesota and Washington. All were tossups in the spring but now lean toward Kerry. A good Democratic convention could nudge Oregon and Pennsylvania toward Kerry.
Recent polls give Kerry an edge in both states, but strategists for Kerry and Bush say the races are still too close to call.
Of the states that Gore won, Pennsylvania is by far Bush’s top target. The president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and has visited it more than any other contested state – 30 trips since his inauguration.
For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.
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