Remember all the spin and counter-spin about how much bounce in the polls, if any, Kerry would get from the Democratic National Convention? National polls haven’t shown anything dramatic, but statewide polls are another story.
The Kerry-Edwards campaign has surged in a few of the states that will probably determine the electoral college winner, according to Realpolitics.com, which polls the polls. In Florida, the biggest swing-state prize, a seesaw race seems to have swung, for the moment at least, Kerry’s way. Two polls show the Democratic ticket with beyond-the-margin-of-error leads of between 6 and 7 percentage points in Florida, post-convention, compared with a statistical dead heat a month earlier.
Kerry also has improved his standing in Michigan (he led by 7 percentage points in one early August survey); Minnesota (8 points up during the convention); Pennsylvania (5 to 6 points in mid-August); and New Hampshire (7 points). Kerry also grabbed a slight advantage over the president in West Virginia during the convention.
In other August poll action, Kerry has cut into Bush’s lead in Washington state and Arizona. And two formerly solidly red states look much more competitive: Colorado and Tennessee were showing virtual ties.
Of course, convention bounces are a two-way street. Look for Bush to enjoy similar benefits in the state races during and immediately after the Republican convention in New York from Aug. 30 to Sept. 2.
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