The capture of deposed dictator Saddam Hussein is a significant step, but may not change much in the struggle to preserve the peace and establish democracy in Iraq, elected leaders and Middle East experts said Sunday.
Leaders from the White House and beyond said Saturday’s seizure of Hussein was a momentous day for freedom-loving Iraqis and the military.
The big question that remains, however, is what it will mean to the eventual establishment of a new and free Iraqi government and the tenuous security situation in which U.S. and coalition forces face daily attacks.
"The capture of Saddam Hussein is an incredible, important event in Iraq," U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen said Sunday, and it’s "important for the morale of our troops, to keep them going and focused on their mission. If I was a soldier in Iraq, I couldn’t be happier."
Larsen, a Democrat who represents the 2nd District and serves on the House Armed Services Committee, visited Iraq in late September.
He said it’s likely the insurgency in Iraq has been operating independently from Hussein, so people should not immediately think the dictator’s capture means a quicker pullout of U.S. troops from the region.
"What I saw firsthand on the ground was there is a long way to go in terms of security and reconstruction," Larsen said. "The terrorist insurgency that has cropped up in Iraq could very well be operating independent of anything.
"If that is the case, then we’re still going to need to have our troops there to ensure the security of Iraq," he said.
Republicans voiced caution as well.
U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn, an 8th Congressional District Republican who also visited Iraq earlier this year, said in a statement that the seizure of Hussein "marks a remarkable turning point in the lives of millions of Iraqi citizens."
"The coalition forces, and the people of Iraq, still face a long and potentially difficult road in rebuilding a nation that was devastated for decades under the oppressive rule of Saddam," she said.
Even so, Larsen said the security inside Iraq and at the country’s borders must be improved to have a lasting difference.
"What’s going to win the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people is moving forward with reconstruction," he said. "We’re still a long way to go from having an economy that is creating jobs in Iraq for Iraqis."
Experts on the Middle East and the involvement of the U.S. in overseas conflicts agree.
"The U.S. still has a lot to accomplish in Iraq," said Ellis Goldberg, a political science professor and director of the Middle East Center at the University of Washington.
The significance of Hussein’s capture really won’t be known for at least a year, Goldberg said, but the development is most helpful right now to country’s burgeoning government, the Iraqi Governing Council, and Iran.
"Clearly there’s no longer any reason to fear the return of Saddam," he said. "There’s no longer any symbol of an alternative regime."
The big winner is Iran, because the U.S. has destroyed its two major enemies, Hussein’s regime and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Goldberg said.
Greg Urwin, a military historian and a history professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, said the ouster of Hussein means one less uncertainty for Iraq.
"It’s one less complication, but there’s so many other factors; making sure the economy picks up, making sure that there are jobs for everybody," he said.
That uncertainty extends to the uprising in Iraq.
"Whether these people are going to lay down their arms and accept the new order or fight for a return of a regime that will give them positions of power and influence … we’ll have to see."
While some of the insurgents have expressed their loyalty to Hussein, others have been attacking coalition forces and their Iraqi supporters for other reasons, Urwin said. Those people are motivated by other factors, and include terrorist outsiders and Iraqis opposed to the occupation of their country.
"It depends on the insurgents, it depends on what they’re fighting for," he said. "They’re not there fighting for Saddam. They’re there fighting against the Great Satan, the United States."
More certain, Urwin, like others, said the capture will mean a bump in the president’s popularity.
Bush has been wise to say that Hussein’s capture won’t mean the end of violence against coalition forces, he said.
"If the guerrilla attacks continue, then he might suffer from the dashing of raised expectations," Urwin said. "There’s no ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner this time."
Reporter Brian Kelly: 425-339-3422 or kelly@heraldnet.com.
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