WASHINGTON – Election Day was five long months away, but Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio, decided to air her first television campaign ad early to set the tone for what promised to be a tough re-election fight.
But when the ad was broadcast in June, it contained an embarrassing error. Pryce’s first name was spelled “Deboarah.” The blunder was especially surprising coming from the camp of a seasoned, seven-term incumbent and senior member of the House Republican leadership.
When it comes to hardball campaigning, however, Pryce is something of a rookie. She has not faced a serious challenge since she was first elected to Congress in 1992. But that has abruptly changed this year – for her, and for some other House Republicans accustomed to coasting to re-election.
With the political winds blowing squarely against the GOP, several senior lawmakers are facing unusually serious challenges that have forced them to dust off campaign tools that, in some cases, are a bit rusty.
In California, Republican Rep. John Doolittle has agreed to debate a Democratic opponent for the first time in more than a decade. GOP Rep. Richard Pombo has expanded his campaign staff beyond what had been a tight inner circle – and spent more money in the process.
In Connecticut, GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson, in her 24th year in Congress, has already aired five expensive television ads. In New York, supporters of Republican Rep. Jim Walsh from Syracuse goofed at one event by distributing 4-year-old campaign literature.
With Democrats needing a 15-seat gain to win control of the House, most of their top targets are junior GOP lawmakers or perennially vulnerable incumbents in swing districts.
But they almost assuredly will have to beat more entrenched Republicans, such as Pryce, if they are to win a majority.
Amy Walter, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, sees such incumbents as “canaries in the mineshaft” whose fate will determine whether the GOP loses control of the House.
When Republicans won the chamber in 1994, their victory was built in part on the surprise defeats of several senior Democratic incumbents, such as then-House speaker Tom Foley of Washington.
Republicans have one advantage that Democrats did not have in 1994. Then, many of the party’s incumbents did not realize they were in trouble until it was too late to do much about it. This year, GOP leaders already have sensed political danger and urged lawmakers to gear up.
“We are encouraging every incumbent to take their challenger seriously,” said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We have been telling them to be active, raise money now, get a team in place. Don’t wait until Labor Day to decide ‘I need a campaign.’ “
Entrenched Republicans are running harder than ever because of voter hostility toward President Bush and Congress.
Walsh, a nine-term incumbent who had no Democratic opponent in 2004 and whose father once served in Congress, has dominated the politics of his New York district for years. But his pollster, Jeff Stonegash, said surveys indicate that Bush’s unpopularity could pose a risk to Walsh and other Republicans.
“Thank you, George Bush,” Stonegash said. “People have become willing to consider a challenger.”
Walsh is still favored to defeat his Democratic opponent, former congressional aide Dan Maffei, but he is not taking the election for granted. Walsh spent more than $100,000 on television ads in June, emphasizing his political “independence” and clout.
“All Republicans need to be aggressive in this environment,” Walsh said.
The political arm of Moveon.org, the online liberal advocacy group, this spring tried to whip up opposition to selected GOP incumbents with a series of television ads accusing them of shilling for special interests that helped finance their campaigns. One target was Johnson, a moderate Republican who has had an iron grip on her district in Connecticut despite its Democratic leanings. This year, however, she faces her toughest challenge in years.
Her response to the Moveon.org attacks was a tribute to the financial clout of long-time incumbents: She immediately dipped into her vast campaign treasury to air two rebuttal ads in April. She followed that up with three spots with positive messages. And she still ended up with $2.6 million in cash on hand at the end of June.
Pryce, who also was attacked by Moveon.org ads, has won every election since her first with more than 60 percent of the vote.
Her district, which includes a swath of Columbus, Ohio State University and its affluent western suburbs, has been trending Democratic. In the 2004 presidential election, Bush carried it over Democratic Sen. John Kerry by less than 2,400 votes.
Pryce’s relatively moderate stance on social issues has served her well in the district in the past. But she is the fourth-ranking member of the conservative-dominated House GOP leadership and has, like most Republicans, supported Bush’s major initiatives. And she, like other Ohio Republicans, bears an added burden this year because the GOP-controlled state government has been wracked by scandals.
“The mood is not conducive to Republicans” in the state, said Herb Asher, a political scientist at Ohio State University.
Sensing vulnerability, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recruited a strong challenger, county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, and encouraged donors around the country to contribute to her. Emphasizing Pryce’s party leadership role, Democrats are portraying her as a “rubber stamp” for Bush.
Pryce quickly realized that 2006 would be a hard-fought campaign for her, in part because of the involvement of the DCCC and Moveon.org.
“It used to be one candidate against the next,” Pryce said. “As I see it now, I have three opponents:” Kilroy, the national Democratic Party and outside political groups, she said.
In mid-May, Pryce replaced her campaign manager with a more experienced, longtime Washington aide. She is spending more time in the district and less time fundraising for fellow Republicans. Her first television ad aired in June – the one that drew hoots of derision for the misspelling of her name.
But the spot, which touted her success in bringing a new veterans’ clinic to Columbus, telegraphed the broader strategy that she and other endangered GOP incumbents hope will help them weather a political storm: focusing on local issues and stressing their work for constituents.
Meanwhile, in this race and others, Democrats’ prospects hinge largely on their ability to redirect voters’ attention to the national political landscape and the links between their local GOP House member and Bush’s unpopular policies.
In Pryce’s case, said Lucie Pollard, a local member of Moveon.org., she “comes across locally as the nice lady down the street. But there’s increasing awareness now that how she’s voting is far from that.”
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