Not more earthquakes, just more people in quake zones

First the ground shook in Haiti, then Chile and now Turkey. The earthquakes keep coming hard and fast this year, causing people to wonder if something sinister is happening underfoot.

It’s not.

While it may seem as if more earthquakes are occurring, there really aren’t. The problem is what’s happening above ground, not underground, experts say.

More people are moving into megacities that happen to be built on fault lines, and they’re rapidly putting up substandard buildings that can’t withstand quakes, scientists say.

And around-the-clock news coverage and better seismic monitoring make it seem as if earthquakes are ever-present.

“I can definitely tell you that the world is not coming to an end,” said Bob Holdsworth, an expert in tectonics at Durham University in northern England, referring to the number of quakes.

A 7.0 magnitude quake last month killed more than 230,000 people in Haiti. Less than two weeks ago, an 8.8 magnitude quake — the fifth-strongest since 1900 — killed more than 900 people in Chile. And on Monday, a strong pre-dawn 6.0 magnitude quake struck rural eastern Turkey, killing at least 51 people.

On average, there are 134 earthquakes a year that have a magnitude between a 6.0 and 6.9, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. This year is off to a fast start with 40 so far, more than in most years for that time period.

But that’s because the 8.8 quake in Chile generated a large number of strong aftershocks, and so many occurring this early in the year skews the picture, said Paul Earle, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey.

Also, it’s not the number of quakes, but their devastating effects that gain attention with the death tolls largely due to construction standards and crowding, Earle said.

“The standard mantra is earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do,” he said.

University of Colorado geologist Roger Bilham’s study last year of earthquake deaths, population, quake size and other factors yielded disturbing results. And that was before Haiti, Chile and Turkey.

“We found four times as many deaths in the last 10 years than in the previous 10 years,” Bilham said Monday. “That’s definitely up and scary.”

The Haiti quake likely set a modern record for deaths per magnitude of earthquake “solely as a function of too many people crammed into a city that wasn’t meant to have that many people and have an earthquake,” said University of Miami geologist Tim Dixon.

Disaster and earthquake experts say the problem will only worsen. Of the 130 cities worldwide with more than 1 million population, more than half are on fault lines, making them more prone to earthquakes, Bilham said.

“I’ve calculated more than 400 million people at risk just from those,” he said.