Overseas voters can tip scales on Nov. 2

NEW YORK – When decision time comes this fall, the real swing votes in the 2004 presidential election may not come from Pennsylvania, Ohio or even Florida. The ultimate Bush-Kerry battleground may turn out to be somewhere more far-flung and unexpected – Israel, Britain, even Indonesia.

And both political camps say they are courting American voters who are living overseas and taking no chances that the expatriate vote will undermine them at the finish line.

Between 4 million and 10 million American citizens are believed to be living abroad. Those over 18 are entitled to have their absentee votes counted in the state where they last lived, no matter how long ago that was.

Overseas voters are considered particularly important this year. Polls suggest razor-thin margins in several battleground states, and votes coming in from abroad – a score here, a dozen there – could well tip the balance.

Those who doubt that Americans living abroad could tip the balance in 2004 might consider this: Various ballot chads aside, Al Gore received 202 more votes than George W. Bush on Election Day 2000 in Florida. Only after the overseas votes were counted, including more than 12,000 from Israel, was Bush’s victory certified. The margin was 537 votes.

Sharon Manitta, spokeswoman for the group Democrats Abroad, said supporters of Democratic challenger John Kerry have been active in “overseas outreach efforts” in Europe, Indonesia, Mexico and even Iran. In 2000, the organization had 30 overseas chapters; now it has a presence in 73 countries.

Bush, too, has advocates chasing the overseas vote on his behalf, according to Ryan King, deputy director of Republicans Abroad, which has chapters in 50 countries. Among those crossing the oceans for Bush this fall are former Vice President Dan Quayle and George P. Bush, son of the president’s brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

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