ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani army declared victory over the Taliban in part of the tribal belt near Afghanistan, saying today that the military operation in the area is finished and civilians can expect to return home soon.
The announcement about the Orakzai tribal region may free the army to send some troops to other districts where Islamist insurgents have bases that threaten the Pakistani state and U.S. troops across the border.
But the victory could also be fleeting — the army has declared success in other trouble spots in the past, only to see militants regroup and resurge.
The offensive in Orakzai came on the heels of an operation against the Pakistani Taliban in the South Waziristan tribal area. Many militants in South Waziristan were believed to have fled to Orakzai, though the top Pakistani Taliban leaders are believed to be in North Waziristan, an area the Pakistani army has resisted attacking.
For months, the military pounded Orakzai with airstrikes, eventually staging a ground operation as well. The offensive intensified in March, with the reported daily death tolls of suspected militants sometimes in the dozens.
Information from the region has been nearly impossible to verify independently because not only is Orakzai remote and dangerous, but access to any part of the tribal belt is severely restricted.
Compared to its other major recent offensives — in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley — the army also has revealed relatively few details about its operations in Orakzai. It was not immediately clear how many soldiers and militants have died, and an attempt to reach the army spokesman was not immediately successful today.
The announcement about the operation’s end was contained near the end of a short press release describing a visit to Orakzai and neighboring Kurram tribal regions by the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.
“(Kayani’s) visit to Orakzai Agency marks the successful conclusion of operations in the agency,” the statement said, adding, “He appreciated the professional conduct of the operation which has cleared the agency of terrorists.”
The statement also said civilians who fled Orakzai could expect to return home soon. More than 200,000 people are believed to have poured out of the area since the end of last year.
The U.S. has praised Pakistan for pursuing army operations against militant groups on its territory. In part, that’s because it does not want Pakistan to be a sanctuary for militants battling U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
The army has moved primarily against the Pakistani Taliban network, which is distinct from the Afghan Taliban factions, though it shares many of the same Islamist and anti-Western goals.
The Pakistani Taliban, while largely focused on targets inside the country, also have been implicated on two recent plots against the U.S. over the past seven months: a successful suicide bombing at a CIA base in eastern Afghanistan and an attempted car bombing in New York’s Times Square last month.
Offensives have left Pakistan’s army tied up in most of the tribal belt, as well as in the Swat Valley, also in the country’s northwest. Even after major operations have ended in some of these areas, militant activity has continued.
In the Bajur tribal region, for instance, the military has twice declared victory since 2008, but violence blamed on militants still flares. In Swat, where major operations ended in mid-2009, targeted killings of several anti-Taliban leaders in recent weeks have put the population back on edge.
Troops also have had to stay in many of the areas even after major operations have ended because the civilian government has been slow in rebuilding or because tribal elders who customarily rule the areas are unwilling to return.
Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a defense analyst, said the army “won’t be able to leave Orakzai altogether,” even if it keeps a significant number of paramilitary forces stationed there.
“There is no administrative infrastructure in the real sense of the word,” Rizvi said.
While the U.S. has been worried most about militant networks in North Waziristan, Rizvi said it was more likely that the army would shift troops toward other fronts, such as Kurram, Khyber and Bajur first.
To date, Pakistan has resisted mounting a large-scale offensive in North Waziristan — where senior al-Qaida figures are also said to be hiding — in part because the militant groups there, such as the Haqqani network, were focused on fighting in Afghanistan, not attacking the Pakistani state.
As it has become increasingly evident that the Pakistani Taliban network is also operating from North Waziristan, Pakistani officials have said they are too stretched to take on that region as well.
In any case, the low-key nature of the announcement today could signal that there’s actually still more work left to do in Orakzai, Rizvi said. The reports of death toll from airstrikes had not abated in recent days — just Sunday, a local official said 18 suspected militants were killed by fighter jets.
“One has to accept this with not a pinch, but a spoon, of salt in it,” Rizvi said of today’s announcement. “We don’t know what the reality is. There is always exaggeration in these things.”
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