Associated Press
OLYMPIA — Only 47 percent of registered voters surveyed in a new poll said they support Initiative 747, a low point for any of Tim Eyman’s tax-reducing ballot measures.
But opponents of the initiative still face bleak prospects. Only 35 percent of the 400 registered voters surveyed in the Elway Poll said they were against I-747, which would limit the growth of property tax levies to 1 percent per year unless local voters approved larger increases. About 19 percent said they were undecided.
"It’s still 12 points ahead," said Stuart Elway, the independent pollster who publishes the Elway Report. "I don’t think it’s going to lose by itself."
In a similar poll taken last month, 55 percent said they were either definitely for or strongly for I-747, with 30 percent against and 15 percent undecided.
Eyman shrugged off Elway’s numbers, noting that the pollster produced similar figures before Initiative 695 passed handily in 1999. I-695 was later thrown out by the courts, as was Eyman’s second tax-reducing proposal, Initiative 722.
"His polls always show softer support than we get on Election Day," Eyman said. "To vote no on 747 is to continue to have skyrocketing property taxes in the state of Washington."
But Eyman’s opponents hailed the poll as evidence that their message was getting through even before a new television campaign started. They contend I-747’s tax growth limitation would force drastic cutbacks in vital public services such as firefighting.
"It just shows that people are paying attention to the impacts of this thing and they’re running away from it," said Christian Sinderman, a spokesman for the No On 747 Committee.
Elway’s most recent poll was taken Oct. 16, 17 and 18. People surveyed were read the ballot title and asked, "As things stand today, which of the following best describes you:" and then invited to choose among definitely for, probably for, probably against and definitely against. The survey has a sampling error of 5 percent.
Elway said the erosion of support is typical of Eyman’s past initiatives, I-695 and I-722, which started out with more than 60 percent support, then dwindled somewhat before Election Day.
"As time goes on and they hear about it, they migrate over to undecided and then to no," Elway said.
However, don’t be surprised if there’s a sizable difference between Elway’s numbers and the results on Election Day. The biggest wild card? There’s no "undecided" box on the ballot. Those voters have to go somewhere, and Eyman expects to get his share.
A few weeks before the 1999 election, I-695’s support in the Elway Poll dipped to 52 percent among registered voters. Another poll Elway conducted for The Seattle Times among likely voters found only 46 percent supported the initiative to abolish the hated car-tab tax and require a public vote for most tax and fee increases. It passed with 56 percent of the vote.
Looking back, Elway says likely voters were the wrong people to sample for I-695, because the initiative unexpectedly pulled occasional voters to the polls.
"We were underrepresenting the actual electorate who showed up on Election Day," Elway said. "That was one of those rare cases when an initiative pulled people to the polls."
In his most recent survey, Elway says, the results among registered voters and likely voters are almost identical.
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