LONDON – It could be five years before Iraqi forces can guarantee security and allow U.S.-led coalition troops to wind down their role, a leading think tank said Tuesday.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said bringing peace to Iraq will depend on its interim government taking control of security and winning public confidence.
“It is essential that Iraqi security forces become the primary instrument of law and order,” the institute said in its annual publication, “The Military Balance.”
The institute’s director, John Chipman, also addressed the issue of terrorism at a news conference, saying that while the United States remains a top target for al-Qaida, Europe may be at a higher risk of attack because of weaker security and its proximity to the Middle East.
The report highlighted efforts to build up Iraqi government forces, but said the task was still in a very early stage. It will take some time before Iraqi forces are ready to take the lead in controlling Iraq and defeating insurgents, it added.
The report said that U.S.-trained government forces currently number 36,000.
“It may take five years for them to obtain the aptitude necessary to guarantee stability,” the report said.
Asked when U.S. and other coalition troops would be able to leave, Christopher Langton, editor of the publication, said that will depend on training Iraqi forces and the speed with which they could take over security.
The report also said that up to 1,000 foreign fighters had infiltrated Iraq and were working alongside Sunni Muslims loyal to ousted leader Saddam Hussein to target U.S. troops.
The institute estimated that there are 18,000 potential terrorists plus many more sympathizers around the world.
Both that estimate and the figure for foreign fighters inside Iraq are unchanged from last year’s report.
The institute is considered the most important security think tank outside the United States.
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