A message coming out of Massachusetts and Oregon elections this month is voters are cranky and won’t be easily typecast in 2010.
Results in the two blue states separated by thousands of miles show they are angry, inspired and able to identify with either conservative or liberal causes.
Massachusetts’ election of Scott Brown energized the Grand Old Party and solidified the foundation for a political resurgence nationwide. There’s a little more bounce in the step of Republican legislators in Olympia and they are talking about the coming change for smaller and less expensive government.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s passage of two tax-raising measures had Democrats in Olympia smiling. They viewed the results as affirming their goal of securing public support for targeted tax hikes to pay for schools, public health, human services and financial aid for college students.
Voters in those states probably didn’t intend to boost the aspirations of either party as much as express themselves on how policies should be handled at the national (Massachusetts) and state (Oregon) levels. Regardless, their voices got heard.
In a few days, Washington voters will be expressing themselves and political leaders should be preparing for what they might say.
On Feb. 9, voters in 165 school districts will decide whether to renew property tax levies to pay for maintenance and operation of their local schools. These levies cover roughly 20 percent of districts’ day-to-day costs, from buying the electricity to turn lights on in classrooms to paying the custodian who turns them off and locks the doors.
If history is an indicator, nearly every one if not all of the 165 levies — including a dozen in Snohomish County — will be passed, meriting a yawn of political analysis.
There is the unthinkable legislators should be thinking about: What happens if 10, 15 or maybe 20 of these levies fail to get the simple majority needed for passage?
Rejection of that magnitude would be unprecedented yet possible, as this is not a typical year for making such decisions. This will be a measuring stick of voter attitude on a question involving their pocket book and their principles in the midst of a recession that’s draining the former and making the latter less affordable.
Such results would send dominos flying in all directions.
Districts would rush to put the levies up for a second vote in May. Their leaders would start drawing up doomsday response plans to deal with the possible loss of millions of dollars if a second defeat occurs.
There might be talk of district bankruptcies and state bailouts.
An unthinkable scenario? Not hardly. Scott Brown’s victory and the first tax hike approved in Oregon since 1931 make unpredictable the new expected.
Even if every M&O levy passes, other critical school funding requests face tough tests Feb. 9.
Thirty-two districts, including Everett, are pursuing levies for physical improvements on campuses. Eleven districts, including Marysville, are pushing bonds to build new schools. These create jobs but also raise taxes, further testing voters’ hearts and wallets.
Though history again is on the side of schools, what happened south and east of Washington are reason to be nervous.
School districts are hoping enough voters understand the importance of the levies and, despite struggling so hard to replenish their family’s depleted coffers, will feel they can afford to keep their money flowing to neighborhood schools.
The decisive bloc will be voters convinced their pocket is getting picked by government, again.
State lawmakers who overanalyze what voters did in Massachusetts and Oregon may risk not hearing what voters in Washington say in a few days.
And that could be costly to the state’s budget now and their political futures later.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield’s blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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