WASHINGTON – An international group of ecologists and economists warned Thursday that the world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, based on a four-year study of catch data and the effects of fisheries collapses.
The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that overfishing, pollution and other environmental factors are wiping out important species around the globe, hampering the ocean’s ability to produce seafood, filter nutrients and resist the spread of disease.
“We really see the end of the line now,” said lead author Boris Worm, a marine biologist at Canada’s Dalhousie University. “It’s within our lifetime. Our children will see a world without seafood if we don’t change things.”
The 14 researchers from Canada, Panama, Sweden, England and the United States spent four years analyzing fish populations, catch records and ocean ecosystems to reach their conclusion. They found that by 2003 – the last year for which data on global commercial fish catches are available – 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed, meaning they are now at least 90 percent below their historic maximum catch levels.
The rate of population collapses has accelerated in recent years: As of 1980, just 13.5 percent of fished species had collapsed, even though fishing vessels were pursuing 1,736 fewer species then. Today, the fishing industry harvests 7,784 species commercially.
“It’s like hitting the gas pedal and holding it down at a constant level,” Worm said. “The rate accelerates over time.”
Oregon State University marine biologist Jane Lubchenco said the study makes clear that fish stocks are in trouble, even though consumers appear to have a cornucopia of seafood choices.
“I think people don’t get it,” Lubchenco said. “They think, ‘If there is a problem with the oceans, how come the case in my grocery store is so full?’ There is a disconnect.”
Thursday’s report suggests it is possible to resolve this puzzle. The researchers analyzed nearly 50 areas where restrictions had been imposed to stop overfishing and found that, on average, the range of species in the water increased by 23 percent within five years.
That provides reason for optimism, Worm said, because it means sound management can halt the decline of fish stocks worldwide.
“It’s not too late to turn this around,” he said. “It can be done, but it has to be done soon.”
Marine advocates, such as chief scientist Michael Hirschfield of Oceana, said he hoped the report would spur countries to reassess their practice of providing roughly $20 billion a year in subsidies for harmful fishing practices.
“The single biggest thing we can do to address this is to eliminate subsidies,” said Hirschfield, adding that European Union countries alone account for 10 percent of these subsidies.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
