OLYMPIA — State lawmakers received a new forecast of revenue Monday, and it seemed like pretty good news, but perhaps not good enough to make their jobs easier.
Collection of taxes and fees is predicted to hit $37.5 billion over the next two-year budget, which is $327 million higher than the last forecast, in February.
That’s nearly 10 percent more — an additional $3.2 billion — than the state expects it will have collected during the current two-year budget, which runs through June 30.
But will Monday’s report help bickering House Democrats and Senate Republicans end a budget impasse and reach agreement before the special legislative session concludes May 28?
Maybe, but don’t count on it.
“I think it will break the logjam,” said Sen. Andy Hill, R-Redmond, chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee and chief architect of the Senate version of budget. “I can’t honestly see how this doesn’t get us out of here. I think our job is even easier than it was in January.”
His House counterpart didn’t sound quite so sure.
“This is the last piece of external data we need,” said Rep. Ross Hunter, D-Medina, the lead writer of the House spending plan. “We’re going to have to cut a deal. But will it solve our problems? No. We have a fair amount of work to do.”
The Legislature adjourned its regular 105-day session on April 24 without a budget. The special session can last up to 30 days, and Monday was day 19.
If lawmakers don’t wrap everything up in 10 days, Gov. Jay Inslee will be forced to call them back again. This is what happened in 2013, when lawmakers came within hours of forcing a partial shutdown of state government.
The sticking point hasn’t changed much. The Democrat-controlled House and Republican-run Senate can’t agree on the amount of money to spend and the source of the dollars for the next two-year budget.
Interestingly, both chambers approved proposals that exceed the $37.5 billion in forecast revenue: House Democrats passed a plan to spend $38.8 billion, while Senate Republicans approved a budget of $37.8 billion.
The House majority proposal would count on money from a new capital-gains tax and a hike in the business tax paid by professional service firms, though they’ve actually voted on neither.
Senate Republicans oppose new taxes and would rely on shifting hundreds of millions of dollars into the general fund from other state accounts to balance the budget.
Both chambers siphon money from state reserves to make ends meet.
As of Monday, there had not been traditional face-to-face negotiation. However, Hunter and Hill said they exchanged budget offers Friday and intended to meet again Monday afternoon.
In the meantime, other lawmakers were divided on the impact of Monday’s forecast.
Sen. Kirk Pearson, R-Monroe, said it should spur a deal that embraces the approach of his caucus.
“We showed we don’t need new taxes to balance the budget,” he said. “It just shows we can get it done.”
But Rep. Ruth Kagi of Seattle, whose district includes part of south Snohomish County, cautioned that even with the added revenue the Senate plan fails to adequately fund human services and early learning. That will take additional revenue, she said.
“It helps but there are such yawning differences between the Senate and the House,” Kagi said. “We do need to come to the middle, and $327 million does not get us to the middle.”
Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, said Monday’s news might not change the discourse between the parties.
“We’re still in the same spot,” Hobbs said. “Hopefully this will move them to negotiate. They’re still beating on their chests and talking about how great their budget is.”
Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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