Bad news for skiers: Their season might end as early as it began.
Meteorologists from Seattle to Vancouver, B.C., say warming trends in the Northwest are melting the snow that blanketed the slopes before Thanksgiving.
The trend, tied to an El Nino year, is causing concern for ski enthusiasts and organizers for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver.
“This is looking like a bad winter for skiing,” said Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington.
It didn’t start that way.
Many skiers were thrilled to see the slopes open early this year. Nearly 2,000 people came to Stevens Pass a week before Thanksgiving to celebrate the beginning of the season. The previous year, the slopes opened in mid-December.
“When we get Thanksgiving skiing, it’s a gift,” Mass said.
December was less kind to the Cascades. The temperature began to rise and fall, melting the snow and then freezing it into “Cascade concrete” — ice, that is.
Temperatures kept climbing in January, breaking a record when the mercury hit 54 degrees in Seattle on Wednesday, 7 degrees above normal, according to the National Weather Service.
With temperatures up, snowpack is down.
For instance, the snow was 64 inches deep at Stevens Pass on Friday. That’s 15 percent below the average of 75 inches, according to the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center.
Garth Ferber, an avalanche meteorologist with the center, said the past couple days of snowfall in the mountains might raise skiers’ hopes, but the longer-term forecast is less promising. “The fact that we’ve had a very El Ninolike pattern — and it looks like it’s going to continue for a while — would make it more likely we’re going to end up below average,” Ferber said.
The familiar weather cycle originates over the equatorial Pacific. El Nino occurs every few years and often makes its presence known in the Northwest shortly after the holiday season.
The cycle could cause trouble for the Winter Olympics, beginning Feb. 12 in Vancouver, B.C.
Cypress Mountain outside Vancouver closed its alpine ski area to the public on Wednesday, two and a half weeks earlier than expected, in an effort to protect its dwindling snowpack.
The mountain is to host freestyle skiing and snowboarding events during the Olympics.
“I think everyone’s reasonably concerned,” said Jesse Mason, a Vancouver meteorologist at CTV, the Canadian broadcaster for the games.
Mason said the majority of events that need snow are relatively safe, since they will take place farther north and inland, near Whistler, B.C.
The events right outside Vancouver have crews scrambling, however. Efforts are under way to preserve the snow on trails at Cypress Mountain, in case it’s needed to cover Olympic courses.
“It’s definitely looking like a spring,” Mason said.
Meteorologists said there’s still reason to keep your skis handy, though.
If temperatures continue to climb, skiers can head for higher elevations. The base of the slopes at Crystal Mountain, at 4,400 feet, will stay white after the base of the Summit at Snoqualmie, sitting at 2,610 feet, is a muddy mess.
Also, there are rare El Nino years when snow gets dumped onto the region.
And ultimately, plenty of the early snowfall still remains.
“You can kind of ride it out,” said Dennis D’Amico, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “I was at Stevens the other night. It’s still good. There’s still feet of snow.”
Historically, the warm rains of El Nino years also bring lush vegetation to the mountains and lowlands. Once that dries up, the weather pattern gives the Northwest another gift: wildfires.
Andy Rathbun: 425-339-3455, arathbun@heraldnet.com
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