Surge not working, report concludes

WASHINGTON — Despite hopes that the U.S. military “surge” in Iraq would encourage economic and political headway and sap the strength of the insurgency, little lasting progress has been achieved, according to a new U.S. report.

The study, based on the assessments of dozens of U.S. military and civilian officials working at local levels across Iraq, runs counter to the forecasts by the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. It said that with the exception of al-Anbar province, there has been “little progress” toward political reconciliation, a key U.S. goal in Iraq.

Withdrawal of U.S. troops would produce “open battlegrounds of ethnic cleansing” in some Baghdad neighborhoods and elsewhere in Iraq, the report said.

In congressional hearings in September, Petraeus and Crocker testified that the addition of 28,000 American troops in Iraq, ordered last winter by President Bush, was tamping down violence and providing opportunity for economic projects, government reform and political reconciliation. The troop “surge” is temporary, however, with the first of the reinforcement units scheduled to leave Iraq before Christmas.

But instead of charting progress, the new report, by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, warns that Iraq “will require years of steady engagement” before there is significant progress in providing Iraqis with power, clean water, jobs, health resources and a government that works.

“Iraq’s complex and overlapping sectarian, political and ethnic conflicts, as well as the difficult security situation, continue to hinder progress in promoting economic development, rule of law and political reconciliation,” the report cautioned.

With a $44 billion investment by American taxpayers in rebuilding Iraq, there are some visible improvements, the report said. But it warned that local and provincial governments “have little ability to manage and maintain” new health clinics, water treatment plants, power-generating facilities and other projects.

One U.S. official in Iraq, quoted anonymously in the report, said he foresaw a “train wreck” ahead as costly U.S. projects in Iraq grind to a halt for lack of manpower or maintenance.

The report’s conclusions parallel previous U.S. assessments, including a major national intelligence estimate in August that said there had been little economic improvement. That report forecast that continuing sectarian violence would continue displacing Iraqis from their own neighborhoods and that Iraq’s government would “become more precarious” over the next six to 12 months.

The office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, created by Congress three years ago to probe U.S. spending in Iraq, is headed by Stuart Bowen, a lawyer who previously worked for then-Gov. George W. Bush in Texas and served on Bush’s White House staff in Washington.

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