As new housing developments went up across Snohomish County, many school districts banked on a jump in enrollment.
It’s usually a safe bet, with each new welcome mat signifying a new family with children ready to bound out the door and off to school.
That didn’t happen for many districts this year.
“We were all kind of scratching our heads,” said Bill McKeighen, the Edmonds district’s budget and finance director. “Where is everyone going?”
Edmonds expected a modest increase in enrollment, but actually saw a drop of 247 students, from 20,972 to 20,725.
The drop means a huge loss for the school district’s bottom line. The state pays, on average, $4,600 per student to school districts. In Edmonds, that translates to nearly $1 million it had planned for and put toward salaries – but won’t see.
Edmonds isn’t alone.
Snohomish was off by 252 in its enrollment estimates, equal to more than $1.1 million in state funding.
In all, enrollment in Snohomish County school districts remained relatively flat at more than 107,000 students.
Meanwhile, new families continue to march into the Monroe and Marysville school districts. Both saw growth of about 2 percent, to 6,791 and 11,803 students, respectively.
Rural districts such as Lakewood and Arlington, close neighbors north of Marysville, also saw enrollment increase. The south Everett area, including the Mukilteo School District, grew as well.
Monroe’s 154-student bump continues a growing trend.
At Salem Woods Elementary School – one of six elementary schools in the Monroe district – 475 students now learn in a building built for 452 after a 6 percent jump, the biggest percentage increase in the district.
“People are just moving out and out and out, and this is a popular place to show up,” Salem Woods Principal Janna Dmochowsky said. “It’s more affordable, close to everything. (Monroe) is a nice town.”
School planners start predicting enrollment as far as 18 months in advance to prepare budgets and teacher contracts. They look at new housing and birth rates, among other factors.
The proof is when the bell rings.
Although enrollment in Lake Stevens and Snohomish was flatter than they expected, it hasn’t created elbow room. Both districts are building new schools to relieve overcrowding that has built up in recent years.
The bigger bite is to the budget.
“If the students don’t show, then you have very little ability to make an adjustment because you have to honor that teacher contract throughout the year,” said Jim Baker, executive director of finance in Marysville. “Enrollment is everything for us.”
In Lake Stevens, the district has filled a $700,000 gap by delaying hiring a principal for Cavelero Mid High School, which opens next fall; leaving several support positions unfilled; and putting off buying a new math curriculum.
The district had projected a 3 percent increase and instead dropped a bit to 7,593 students. It likely won’t project an increase for next year, spokeswoman Arlene Hulten said.
Snohomish, which was off by 252 in its enrollment estimates, actually saw its enrollment in the district increase by 33 students, to 9,407.
Still, that is far less than expected.
Like other districts, Snohomish left some staff positions unfilled over the summer as a precaution. It will not fill those three teacher positions and will fill the rest of the gap, about $940,000, from savings.
The district was less conservative in its projections this year after gaining 300 students last year, the biggest increase in the county. But even if the district had chosen the more conservative estimate, it would have been off by 100 students, said Karen Riddle, executive director of business and operations.
“It’s an art, not a science. There are a whole lot of mathematical ways you can do it. Some years you’re close, and others you’re not,” she said.
In Stanwood, business director Gary Platt isn’t seeing any of the large new houses sit empty, although some of the bedrooms might be.
“People are building and selling houses, they just don’t have school-age children,” he said. “It’s kind of an interesting phenomenon.”
Real estate sales have cooled in Snohomish County.
But that’s a recent trend that doesn’t account for schools’ enrollment questions, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.
“The other side of the equation is who is buying the homes. If the homes are being sold to empty-nesters or first-time homebuyers who are just starting families, it may be a while before they show up in schools,” Crellin said. “It’s a timing issue.”
Pricing also could play a role, said Chris Strow, public affairs director for the Snohomish County- Camano Association of Realtors.
“It’s really hard to find a house in Snohomish County anywhere under $300,000,” said Strow, noting that families can struggle with that kind of price tag.
Still, he called the enrollment drops a surprise. “And I suspect there’s more to the story.”
For now, Edmonds is taking the equivalent of 13 staff positions off the books by leaving vacant positions open and trimming some staff hours in middle and high schools.
Some hope this year’s dip is an anomaly. But McKeighen is troubled by Edmonds’ kindergarten numbers, which were 72 students fewer than expected. Others also saw fewer kindergartners than projected.
“That’s a very early warning sign for districts,” he said. “As that kindergarten class moves forward … we’re graduating more than we’re bringing up. That signals more decline, mathematically.”
Reporter Melissa Slager: 425-339-3465 or mslager@heraldnet.com.
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