Taiwan considers sovereignty referendum

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s leader warned Saturday that he might use a new referendum law to call a vote on Taiwan’s sovereignty, a move that could test China’s threats of force to prevent independence on the island.

President Chen Shui-bian’s threat caught many in Taiwan by surprise. In the four years since he was elected, Chen had always said he would push for formal independence only if China tried to use its massive military to force the island to unify.

The two sides have been governed separately since they split during a civil war in 1949. China is pressuring Taiwan — 100 miles off the mainland’s coast — to unify, and it has threatened to invade if Taiwan drags its feet too long. The United States has helped defend the island before and could be asked to do so again.

During a campaign speech Saturday in Taipei, Chen said he might hold a referendum on the "country’s sovereignty" during the March 20 presidential election.

"In order to prevent Taiwan’s national security and Taiwan’s national sovereignty from being threatened by any outside force and from undergoing any change, I have the duty, I have the responsibility to be able to call for a referendum if the government approves," Chen said.

A law approved Thursday gives Chen the power to call a "defensive referendum" if there is an imminent threat to Taiwan’s self-governing status. But the law is vague and doesn’t spell out the nature or conditions of the threat.

Political scientist Emile Sheng of Soochow University in Taipei said the president’s statements were just "election talk" and shouldn’t anger China. Many of Chen’s core supporters oppose unifying with China and would favor an independence vote.

"If China doesn’t understand that, it could give a strong reaction. But I believe its understanding of Taiwanese politics is much stronger than it used to be," Sheng said.