Spring training is under way for the 2012 election season.
Candidates are signing up, their political parties are crowing about them and their supporters are imbued with hopes of victory when all the votes are tallied a little more than 16 months from now.
As glorious as 2012 may turn
out for the Republican Party on a statewide stage, it could as easily wind up a bust.
Let’s consider the possibilities.
Washington has nine statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state, insurance commissioner, public lands commissioner and superintendent of public schools.
All the offices are partisan except for the state schools chief, which is only sort-of partisan. Candidates in that race tend to run in either the Teachers-Prefer-Me Party or Teachers-Do-Not-Prefer-Me Party.
Right now, Republicans hold only the seats of attorney general and secretary of state. Both are in jeopardy because their occupants — Rob McKenna and Sam Reed respectively — are vacating them for other pursuits.
McKenna wants to be governor. Should he succeed it will give the GOP a political championship that’s eluded its grasp since the 1980 election of John Spellman. That win alone would make 2012 a breakthrough year for the Republican Party.
If he loses, it’ll leave members of the venerable party with a sick and empty feeling, somewhat like afflicted Mariners fans had when their magical 116-win season of 2001 ended without a title.
Oh, but it could get worse.
Reed’s retirement loosens the Republican grip on that seat, though history favors them holding onto it. There has not been a Democrat elected as secretary of state since Vic Meyer in 1960.
Republican Kim Wyman began her campaign this week to keep the office in the GOP column. Wyman, who is Thurston County’s auditor, is up against a moderate Democrat, state Sen. Jim Kastama of Puyallup. Since neither is all that well known around the state, it’s got to be a toss-up right now.
Then there’s the race for attorney general.
Reagan Dunn is a one-time Republican Party wunderkind who carries the name of two GOP heroes — Ronald Reagan and Jennifer Dunn. Many think his career arc will one day reach the governor’s mansion.
Dunn is a King County councilmember dueling fellow councilmember Bob Ferguson for the job. Both are in their first statewide races.
This seat is not a lock for a Republican. Voters elected Democrat Christine Gregoire as attorney general three times — one more than McKenna — before putting her in the governor’s job.
For now, these three contests — governor, attorney general and secretary of state — are Republicans’ best shot for increasing their numbers and influence in statewide offices.
But it’s early. Real early. Months of work lie ahead for the candidates and their campaign teams.
Just as Mariners’ fans are filled with dreams of winning a World Series when players arrive in Peoria, Ariz., each spring for the start of a new season, the Grand Old Party’s cup of confidence runneth over today. But it may be empty when all the votes are tallied a little more than 16 months from now.
It’s a long season for players and their fans, it’s an even longer one for candidates and the voters.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield’s blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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