By Pauline Jelinek
Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The next focus of the Afghanistan war — in the south where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding in caves — could present the U.S. military with a formidable challenge.
As the Taliban flee from northern cities, American forces could be drawn toward greater use of ground troops or a guerrilla war.
A month of airstrikes by U.S. warplanes, including a week of bombing Taliban front lines, has helped rebels take one northern city after another. They marched into the capital, Kabul, on Tuesday.
"It’s the first good news we’ve had in our war," said Ivo Daalder, defense analyst at Brookings Institution. "But let’s not confuse good news with victory."
Indeed, the Pentagon has known for some time that destroying the al-Qaida network and toppling the Taliban who shelter its members might turn more on progress on the southern front — where the Taliban and al-Qaida are strongest.
"We didn’t go to war to install the Northern Alliance in Kabul," Daalder said. "We went to war to get al-Qaida, which is concentrated in the south."
In the south, there is no such rebel force as the Northern Alliance. And Washington has tried with difficulty to find allies willing to start an uprising in the region, which includes Kandahar, the Taliban’s headquarters.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday that some U.S. special forces were in southern Afghanistan "doing things that are helpful to our side and unhelpful to the other side." But, unlike the American forces in the north, those in the south are not working with any anti-Taliban groups, Rumsfeld said.
U.S military planners think the best course is to approach ethnic Pashtun tribal leaders in the south who are unhappy with the Taliban and persuade them to defect. The CIA has been out in front on the effort, trying to identify individuals or groups for the Pentagon to equip and arm, officials have said.
Without defections to form a strong fighting force in the south, the Pentagon might have to put more of its own troops on the ground to do more of the fighting, analysts said.
Washington has been hoping that successes in the north would help persuade Pashtun leaders in the south to turn against the Taliban. Analysts said it’s possible the alliance’s march through so much of the north in just a few days may have exactly that effect.
"The Taliban are really on the ropes," Vickers said. "It’s important that this momentum be exploited."
Associated Press
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