Up to 128,000 may be dead in Myanmar

YANGON, Myanmar — The Red Cross estimated Wednesday that the cyclone death toll in Myanmar could be as high as 128,000, a much higher figure than the government tally. The U.N. warned a second wave of deaths will follow unless the military regime lets in more aid quickly.

Monsoon winds and rain whipped through the Irrawaddy River delta in Myanmar — also known as Burma — on Wednesday, compounding the misery for up to 2.5 million survivors of this month’s deadly cyclone and spawning new appeals from the international community for immediate access to the disaster zone.

A tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal added new worries, but late in the day forecasters said it was weakening and unlikely to grow into a cyclone.

Myanmar’s military rulers continued to reject on-the-ground help from the outside world. Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Wednesday that he secured support from Myanmar to increase the flow of relief aid.

Myanmar’s government issued a revised casualty toll Wednesday night, saying 38,500 were known dead and 27,838 were missing from the May 3 cyclone.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, however, said its estimate put the number of dead between 68,833 and 128,000. U.N. officials have said there could be more than 100,000 dead.

The Red Cross also estimated that between 1.6 million and 2.5 million people had been affected by Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath, and said huge numbers had yet to be reached by rescuers.

U.N. agencies and other voluntary groups have been able to reach only 270,000 of the affected people, said Elisabeth Byrs of the U.N. Office for Humanitarian Affairs in Geneva.

She said the World Food Program would need 55,000 tons of rice to feed 750,000 people for three months, but the agency had been able to ship in only 361 tons so far.

Myanmar’s governing junta insisted can handle the disaster on its own — a stance that appeared to stem not from the isolationist regime’s ability but from its deep suspicion of most foreigners, who have frequently criticized its human rights abuses and crackdowns on democracy activists.

The junta did grant approval Wednesday for a Thai medical team to visit the ravaged Irrawaddy River, said Dr. Thawat Sutharacha of Thailand’s Public Health Ministry.

The government also announced it would allow in 160 relief workers from neighboring countries — India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand. It was not clear whether they would be permitted to go to the delta.

While it has kept out all but a few foreign aid workers, the regime has accepted tons of provisions sent by international donors, including the U.N. and the United States.

The Bush administration said it will continue to send emergency assistance to Myanmar’s cyclone victims despite concerns the country’s military government may be confiscating the aid or diverting it away from those most in need.

Officials from the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development said Wednesday the crisis is so severe that they are willing to risk American aid winding up in the wrong hands or for sale to ensure that at least some gets through. So, for the moment at least, they said supplies would keep flowing if the regime allows it.

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