The death Monday of New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D, has thrust a politically challenging set of decisions before Chris Christie, the state’s Republican governor.
He must choose an interim replacement for Lautenberg and set a special-election date for a permanent one, all in a year when Christie is seeking re-election in a state that backed President Obama’s re-election by 17 percentage points.
New Jersey’s partisan bent makes it likely that a Democrat will ultimately replace Lautenberg, who died at age 89 of complications from pneumonia. The choices in the meantime before Christie, an often-mentioned potential presidential contender in 2016, carry murkier consequences for his future.
In the shorter term, Christie’s choice also could affect the outcome of the debate over revising U.S. immigration laws and providing a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants residing in the U.S. without authorization. That legislation, which was backed by Lautenberg, is headed for the Senate floor next week.
It remains to be seen whether Christie, who has said he supports a “clear” path to legalization, will choose a successor who shares that view, which could add a coveted Republican “yes” vote on potentially the biggest domestic issue of 2013 and a top Obama priority. With Lautenberg’s vacancy Democrats have a controlling majority of 54 seats compared with 45 Republicans.
“Christie’s appointment will be in a sense a test of his own philosophy and will say something about him,” said G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist and the director of the Center for Politics &Public Affairs at Franklin &Marshall College in Lancaster, Penn. “The safest thing would be to choose a neutral placeholder from his party, but he’s never been known for taking the safe route.”
If Christie follows tradition, he might appoint a close ally even given the Democratic bent of his state. Among the Republicans prominently mentioned as candidates for the appointment are state Senator Tom Kean Jr., the son of former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean and the party’s 2006 Senate nominee; State Senator Joe Kyrillos, a confidant who was the party’s 2012 Senate nominee; and Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno — she was Christie’s 2009 running mate.
Staying within the party could shore up Christie’s support among Republicans, some of whom regarded his embrace of Obama following Hurricane Sandy as a betrayal of the party that harmed 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
Yet Christie also needs the support of New Jersey Democrats if he wants to win a second term in November, and has been campaigning as a bipartisan governor capable of reaching across the aisle to accomplish major initiatives in a state controlled by his political rivals.
If he wants to strengthen that attribute at home, Christie might opt to tap a Democrat — and risk enraging Republican activists he’ll need if he enters the 2016 presidential primary.
“The downside is that he’d signal national Republicans he’s not on their team,” said government professor Peter Woolley of Fairleigh Dickinson University in Madison, New Jersey. “You’d give up two things: a vote in the Senate to help them over the next year, and it would be basically conceding that seat next year. That’s probably the worse offense of the two.”
In comments Monday at the Patriots Theater in Trenton, Christie alluded to his political differences with Lautenberg, a feisty partisan best known for championing gun-control measures and authoring laws banning smoking on airplanes, even as he complimented the Democrat’s fighting spirit.
“It’s no mystery that Senator Lautenberg and I didn’t always agree; in fact, it’s probably more honest to say that we very often didn’t agree,” Christie said, adding that the two had “some pretty good fights.” In March 2012, Christie called Lautenberg a “political hack” and urged him to retire.
“But never was Senator Lautenberg to be underestimated as an advocate of the causes he believed in,” Christie said Monday. “Senator Lautenberg fought for the things he believed in. Sometimes he just fought because he liked to.”
Christie also faces a complicated decision about the timing of the election to replace Lautenberg, who had announced he was retiring and wouldn’t seek re-election next year.
New Jersey has two contradictory laws on the subject, one that would set a special election on Nov. 5 of this year — when Christie himself will be on the ballot — and one that would require the vacancy to be filled on the next general- election date, Nov. 4, 2014, or on a special-election date of Christie’s choosing.
Newark Mayor Cory Booker, D, who weighed a challenge to Christie in the gubernatorial race, is preparing to seek Lautenberg’s seat, and U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone, D, is said to be considering a bid.
If Christie opted for a special election this year, the race would play out against the backdrop of his own campaign, complete with Booker’s name likely appearing on the ballot under his own. One Washington-based Republican strategist who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the vacancy said Republicans would prefer that Christie name a replacement and push the election to 2014.
People close to Christie say he is debating whether to name a placeholder or somebody who might actually be able to compete against Booker, who is regarded by Republicans as exceedingly difficult to beat, according to a strategist who requested anonymity to describe private conversations.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, D, whose state is also solidly Democratic, twice opted for the placeholder approach when naming interim Senate successors in recent years.
He appointed William “Mo” Cowan, Patrick’s former chief of staff, to temporarily replace John Kerry, who retired Feb. 1 to become Secretary of State. Cowan said he had no intention of running for the seat in the June 25 special election. In 2009, Patrick appointed Paul Kirk Jr., a close friend of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy with no designs on his seat, to sit in the Senate after Kennedy’s death until a special election could be held a few months later.
“The tug-of-war for him is on one hand to satisfy as many of the people who are going to be standing outside his door wanting that seat, while on the other hand to satisfy his legacy as a governor with this opportunity,” Woolley said of Christie.
“Every Republican in New Jersey’s congressional delegation is thinking about this, I’m sure. I don’t doubt there a long list people who would like to look Christie in the eye and ask him for it.”
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