Voters lack anger of last recession, polls indicate

By Dan Balz

The Washington Post

CALABASAS, Calif. — Almost six months after the dramatic events of Sept. 11, the war on terrorism appears to have elevated the standing of many national politicians but has not produced the kind of re-engagement with government and politics that many predicted.

Contrary to widespread expectations immediately after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the partisan divisions in the public so visible in the 2000 elections remain strongly in place on issues other than the war, while politics itself seems less important than ever to many voters, according to a Washington Post poll and a separate focus group with voters in this Los Angeles suburb.

Unlike what happened to his father a decade ago, there is no evidence so far that President Bush faces a backlash from the recession in the wake of a U.S. military victory abroad. Concerns about the economy have risen since Sept. 11, but that has not dented an overall sense of satisfaction with the way Bush and Congress are performing.

The start of the 2002 midterm election year finds voters paying close attention to the war on terrorism but remaining largely disengaged from the debates in Washington over the economy, education and campaign finance reform.

With Republicans eager to reclaim their Senate majority and Democrats equally determined to take control of the House, both parties appear to face significant challenges in capturing the attention and winning the allegiance of disengaged swing voters.

A majority of those surveyed — 56 percent to 40 percent — said partisan politics seems less important to them since the terrorist attacks of last September.

Randy Cole, a laid-off Grand Rapids, Mich., factory worker, said the question of which party controls Congress looks pretty inconsequential to him. Confident that his employer will call him back before long, Cole said, "It seems more important to fight the war on terrorism on a single front, and the Republicans and Democrats are joining together to do that."

Post reporters came to a battleground area of this vital state to question at length a group of 10 voters with no strong allegiance to either party on the attitudes and concerns that may shape the coming campaign.

The group’s strong support for Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism showed the continuing impact of Sept. 11. But that support seemed thoroughly isolated from their view that politics as usual is prevailing on almost every other issue, a view reinforced by respondents in the national poll.

"It’s five months since Sept. 11, and unfortunately I don’t think it’s much different," said Don Sherman of Drexel Hill, Pa. "I think it was the first month or two, but the negative aspects have all come back."

What was notable in both the national survey and the focus group was the absence of anger that accompanied the recession a decade ago. For three months, polls have shown rising concern about the economy, but there is no evidence to date that Bush or the Republicans are being blamed.

Democrats have hoped for a rerun of what happened to Bush’s father, who saw his 90 percent approval ratings collapse after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when voters concluded he was indifferent to rising unemployment. Unless the recession deepens, Democrats may be frustrated in pursuing that strategy.

Seven in 10 Americans rated the economy negatively, but asked who is to blame, that same proportion identified the impact of Sept. 11 or normal changes in the business cycle. About 3 in 5 targeted congressional Republicans or Democrats, with the blame almost equally apportioned, while less than half (47 percent) identified Bush — no more than faulted former President Clinton.

Offsetting concerns about the economy, a majority of those surveyed (54 percent) said they believe the country is generally heading in the right direction. A decade ago, when almost 90 percent rated the economy negatively, only 18 percent of Americans were upbeat about the overall direction of the country.

The lack of anger over the economy bodes well for incumbents in both parties. By a margin of 55 percent to 42 percent, those surveyed said Bush and the Democratic leaders in Congress are making good progress on solving the country’s problems — exactly the opposite image the public held of the elder Bush and the then-Democratic leaders of Congress at the beginning of the 1990 midterm election year.

Congress’ overall approval rating stands at 57 percent in the latest Washington Post poll. In early 1990 it was 41 percent.

The war on terrorism overshadows all other issues. About 8 in 10 Americans surveyed said they were closely following news about the war in Afghanistan or terrorist threats at home, but fewer than 4 in 10 said they were paying close attention to the debates over an economic stimulus package or campaign finance reform.

The passage of an education reform bill, one of Bush’s top domestic priorities, has gone largely unnoticed. Although several participants in the focus group said they wanted politicians to pay more attention to education, none was aware that legislation had been passed and signed by the president late last year. In the Post poll, 44 percent knew that the bill had been passed.

The new poll found that almost 2 in 3 Americans are paying close attention to news about the Enron Corp. scandal but that neither party has been significantly hurt by the disclosures to date. Three in 4 surveyed indicated that they saw no greater responsibility belonging to one party than the other for the collapse of the giant energy company.

"It touches both (parties) and if anybody is at fault, I would say it’s (the accounting firm) Arthur Andersen," said Ivor Cherry of Grenada Hills, Calif.

Like the rest of the nation, the focus group participants gave Bush high marks for handling the war on terrorism. Eric Anhalt, who sells computer software and lives in Calabasas, said, "It’s a very turbulent time and he’s facing a lot of issues and we’re all facing a lot of issues and I think he’s done a far better job than I expected him to."

Others tempered their praise with comments suggesting that they have not fundamentally changed their views about Bush. Several said other presidents would have done as well under the same circumstances.

Their enthusiasm for taking the war beyond Afghanistan was decidedly mixed, despite polls showing approval for action against Iraq. Nicole Davis, a market director who lives in Agora Hills, Calif., said, "I think America can’t be safe unless you get rid of the bad guys and at any cost to get rid of them."

But others said the president should not use the events of Sept. 11 as a pretext to launch other operations beyond Afghanistan without compelling new evidence.