In the next few decades, a wave of growth will spell intense change for Snohomish County.
The population boom is expected to be felt most acutely in an anonymous pocket of neighborhoods tucked between the cities of Everett and Lynnwood.
There, a future sea of apartments and condos is predicted, possibly bringing nearly 30,000 more people by 2040.
That pace of growth could make the area near Lake Stickney the fastest growing area in Snohomish County, according to a Herald computer analysis.
Forecasters predict it will be the second-fastest- growing area in the four-county Puget Sound region.
All told, the future bustling urban center could be home to an estimated 42,000 people, most living in buildings up to six stories tall.
“It’s going to feel like living in the downtown – too full of people and no place for them to go,” said Holli Schippers of Lynnwood. “It scares me.”
Sweeping changes are expected across the region, according to population predictions by the Puget Sound Regional Council.
Snohomish, King, Pierce and Kitsap counties are expected to climb to 5 million people by 2040. The region by then should be home to 3 million jobs.
Snohomish County alone is expected to have more than 1 million people by then. Many communities, such as the area south of Lake Stickney, can expect steep increases in population.
“It’s our best guess what’s going to be there,” said Mark Simonson, Puget Sound Regional Council principal planner.
Simonson and others studied trends in the economy, family sizes and population changes, as well as national forecasts and how the region relates to national trends.
Planners estimated how many people might move into the region and where they most likely will live. They funneled those numbers into U.S. Census tracts.
According to predictions, more than 21,000 people will move into new housing in downtown Everett and near the Everett Mall. Everett Mayor Ray Stephanson has said the growth can’t happen unless Sound Transit’s light rail also stretches to downtown Everett.
Central Snohomish County cities might see an 80 percent rise in population as about 175,000 people move into Everett, Lake Stevens, Marysville and Snohomish.
The block of cities in southwest Snohomish County are expected to grow the most, adding more than 200,000 people.
Across the board, the growth is expected to bring traffic and demands for drinking water, schools, sewer service and increased police protection.
With more people and higher demand for housing, the growth also will test the state’s Growth Management Act. The law forces development into cities and urban areas to protect rural pastures and open space.
It’s no surprise that the area facing the single biggest increase in population in Snohomish County is along I-5 and Highway 99 and between 128th and 164th streets.
Population and housing are meant to be focused on those major transit routes, Snohomish County principal demographer Steve Toy said.
The county voted to allow densely-populated urban centers with apartments or condos above retail shops, Toy said. More people are expected to live within walking distance of services and buses by 2025.
Regional leaders are looking even farther ahead.
Fast forward to 2040 and nearly 70 percent of the people in the area south of Lake Stickney might live in multi-family homes, compared with about 60 percent now.
If so, the share of apartments and condos would be similar to Seattle’s University District. The number of people per acre would rival Seattle’s Queen Anne neighborhood.
The county’s first urban center project was built in 2004 and is seen as a model for future housing. The $20 million Newberry Square near 164th Street SW has a mix of tall apartment buildings, offices and shops.
Larry Sundquist, president of Sundquist Homes, built the project and has his offices there. Seeing more development nearby makes sense, he said.
“We have to accommodate the growth somewhere,” said Sundquist, a homebuilder in the county for 33 years. “Putting it next to where transit is available seems like a logical conclusion to me.”
He still worries that the roads aren’t designed to handle the number of people and cars expected in the neighborhood.
The hot housing market is cooling, Sundquist said. Consequently, apartments are filling up and rents are rising, he said.
That makes apartment projects more feasible for builders, he said.
“I think what you’re going to see with high-density development occurring around here is buildings that are five or six stories tall,” Sundquist said.
There’s real estate available. Three decades of housing developments followed sewer lines north to Everett and east to Mill Creek, Toy said.
Finally, sewer connections are marching down most streets in the area south of Lake Stickney, and other places projected for rapid growth.
“There is considerable catch-up,” Toy said. “We’re seeing growth picking up in that area.”
Some are skeptical that builders will find enough land for apartment complexes.
“I don’t think they can, but I’m sure they’ll try their best to do it,” said Schippers of Lynnwood. “Fifteen years ago, this was all pastures.”
Much of the housing boom is expected in an area full of wetlands and bisected by Swamp Creek. The creek already has a declining salmon population that could worsen with development, said Tom Murdoch, director of the Adopt-a-Stream Foundation.
To protect runs of chinook, coho and sockeye salmon and steelhead in the creek, the county has to limit development, Murdoch said.
“Build up instead of out,” he said. “We need to build on smaller footprints.”
Lynnwood officials have plans to stretch the city limits north to control how the area develops, Lynnwood Mayor Don Gough said.
“Oh goodness!” Gough said, after hearing the area is a leader in future population growth.
“We’re interested because we know we need to stabilize what Lynnwood will be in the future,” Gough said. “We’re getting involved instead of letting it be an area that grows hither and yon.”
Reporter Jeff Switzer: 425-339-3452 or jswitzer@heraldnet.com.
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