JERUSALEM – Hamas’ decisive win in Palestinian legislative elections has shaken up the Middle East. A look at what the victory could mean for Israeli-Palestinian relations, Mideast peacemaking and Palestinian politics:
Question: How did Hamas pull off this upset?
Answer: Hamas exploited public discontent with the corruption-tainted Fatah Party, which has dominated Palestinian politics for four decades. While reiterating its commitment to “resistance” against Israel, Hamas focused its campaign on internal issues, promising better public services, honesty in government and an end to lawlessness.
Question: Does Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas have to resign?
Answer: No. Abbas was elected last year to a four-year term as president of the Palestinian Authority. However, he now will have to work with a Cabinet and Legislature dominated by Hamas, severely limiting his ability to maneuver. Abbas has said he will resign if he cannot pursue a peace deal with Israel. If Abbas steps down, the Palestinians would have to hold new presidential elections.
Question:Is this the end of the peace process?
Answer: Hamas, which has carried out dozens of suicide bombings, says it remains committed to destroying Israel. But it has signaled it would allow Abbas to handle negotiations with Israel while it focuses on its domestic agenda. A top Hamas leader, Mahmoud Zahar, said Thursday the group is ready to extend a year-old cease-fire with Israel if Israel reciprocates. Hamas has not carried out a suicide attack since the truce took effect.
Question: Although Hamas will dominate the Legislature, it has said it is ready to share power. What are its options?
Answer: Hamas could try to rule alone, agree with Fatah on installing an independent prime minister to lead the Cabinet, or even allow Fatah to hold senior positions in the Cabinet while it focuses on social issues. Zahar promised broad changes to “every aspect” of Palestinian life, including health programs, education and economic policies. But Hamas was vague about its plans for dealing with Israel.
Question: Would Fatah agree to become a junior partner in a Hamas-run coalition?
Answer: Fatah has ruled out joining a Hamas-led government, according to a decision by senior party members. The decision was relayed to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.
Question: Is Israel willing to talk to Hamas?
Answer: Acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in a statement that Israel “will not negotiate with a Palestinian administration if even part of it is an armed terrorist organization calling for the destruction of the state of Israel.” Israel has said it hopes to pursue a peace deal with the Palestinians, but has indicated it would make more unilateral moves, such as its withdrawal from Gaza, if it concludes there is no Palestinian partner. Following Hamas victories in municipal elections in recent months, Israel has been forced to coordinate with Hamas-backed mayors on day-to-day issues such as providing water and electricity.
Question: Will Hamas agree to disarm, as required under the U.S.-backed “road-map” peace plan?
Answer: During the campaign, Hamas officials said they would not disarm. Hamas will have to decide whether to fold its military wing into the national Palestinian security forces or let it remain independent.
Question: What is the future of the Palestinian security forces?
Answer: Hamas has had tense relations with the Fatah-dominated security forces, which have been involved in several crackdowns against Hamas in the past decade. With the next prime minister likely to be backed by Hamas, the group could soon be running those same forces. Hamas officials have sought to assure members of the security forces they have nothing to fear.
Question: The U.S. has pushed for democracy in the Middle East. How did it react to the Hamas victory?
Answer: President Bush said elections sometime bring unwelcome results. He said any group with an armed wing that advocates violence against Israel “is a party with which we will not deal.”
Question: Will Hamas turn the West Bank and Gaza into an Islamic state?
Answer: Hamas says it has no plans to create an Iranian-style theocracy or interfere in people’s daily lives. Instead, it says it will encourage people to respect Islamic customs such as avoiding alcohol and having women dress modestly. Even if Hamas tries to impose its will, it will be difficult to change major laws. Altering Palestinian “basic laws,” widely seen as the basis for a future constitution, requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament. However, Palestinian secular rights activists fear Hamas will try to chip away at personal freedoms.
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