By Robin Wright
Los Angeles Times
WASHINGTON — The warnings have been issued, the gauntlet thrown down. Now, after a year of internal divisions and military diversions, the serious planning is under way within the Bush administration for a campaign against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Any denouement in Iraq is still a long way off, the officials insist. But the broad outlines of favored options have begun to emerge.
As policymakers deliberate the options, three basic scenarios are emerging:
Policy might well end up with some mix of these approaches. But the common denominator behind each is the threat of some kind of military action should Iraq not change its ways.
"There’s an evolving consensus that a sizable U.S. military activity will be required," said a well-placed source.
Of the three scenarios, the diplomatic route is gaining speed the fastest. The United States must be seen to exhaust those possibilities to win allied support for — or at least tolerance of — more aggressive options, U.S. officials concede.
But the diplomatic route is vulnerable to failure, U.S. officials admit. To enforce smart sanctions, the United Nations must rely on inspections on the borders of Syria, Iran, Turkey and Jordan, all of which allow Iraq to smuggle oil out in violation of U.N. sanctions in exchange for payoffs or deep discounts on the resource.
Persuading Iraq to allow in the weapons inspectors also might not produce a quick and decisive climax. As his regime did for eight years, Hussein could carry out "cheat and retreat" schemes to prolong the process.
One idea making the rounds in Washington, D.C., is getting Iraq’s neighboring states together to discuss a viable post-Hussein government.
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