Winter weather forecast reverts to normal: wet, wet, wet

By Jim Haley

Herald Writer

Break out the galoshes and umbrellas.

In fact, you might even need your hip boots or snowshoes this coming winter season.

And if you live in lowland farm areas, be sure to have the sandbags handy and get ready to drive the livestock to high ground.

Why?

We are expected to endure "normal" fall and winter weather conditions, National Weather Service experts predict.

That increases the chance of lowland flooding.

"There’s no basis to suggest a repeat of last winter’s unusual dryness" that brought power shortages and water conservation efforts, said Wayne Higgins, a senior meteorologist at the national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

On the other hand, statistics indicate we are three or four times more likely to have conditions that cause flooding during a normal year, added Mike McAllister of the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management.

Higgins was one of the guest speakers last week at a workshop in Seattle to discuss forecasts for the upcoming wet season. His center maintains a constant watch on short-term climate fluctuations around the country. McAllister, who attended the workshop, keeps an eye on flooding conditions locally.

The bottom line is this may well be a "variable year," McAllister said. "It’s a pattern that brings … a flip-flop between" cold and wet conditions, events that sometimes lead to flooding.

The reason for a normal year is that for the first time in years our winter season won’t be influenced by weather phenomena known as El Nino or La Nina, either an ocean warming or cooling in the tropical Pacific where some of our weather originates, Higgins said.

The last time that happened was in the winter of 1996-97 when the Puget Sound area suffered through a record snowfall in late December, followed by heavy rains.

That left us with a water-saturated mess. Ice and slop filled our roads and clogged urban drains, causing flooding where it normally doesn’t occur. Roofs caved in, and the Port of Edmonds’ covered marina collapsed, damaging or sinking hundreds of pleasure craft.

That doesn’t mean the same thing will happen this year, because conditions still have to be just right, McAllister said. The right conditions usually mean a heavy snow and low freezing level followed by a "pineapple express," a warm and wet storm accompanied by a high freezing level.

Still, he warned folks to be prepared and never drive over a road with water covering it. He also advised people to buy weather radios, those that will automatically turn on if a weather or some other emergency bulletin is issued by officials.

There’s some good news in the forecast, Higgins said.

The forthcoming winter season should give us "some short-term relief for the drought."

He hedged his bets, however, acknowledging that predicting weather in this part of the world is difficult. Predictors are getting better, however, Higgins said.

"This is not a gangbusters, robust , confident forecast for the Northwest," Higgins said. "You can think of it as an educated ‘We don’t know.’ "

He can talk about probabilities, Higgins said, but long-range weather predictions are difficult.

"It’s a little like going to Las Vegas," he said.

You can call Herald Writer Jim Haley at 425-339-3447 or send e-mail to haley@heraldnet.com.

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