As Americans look ahead to the New Year, their confidence in the economy seems to be on the rebound.
After hitting a low point in November, one popular measure of consumer confidence now shows a dramatic rise in public expectations. Americans see better conditions ahead in the middle of the year.
For the Puget Sound area as well as the nation, there appears to be reason for optimism. A regional economist, John Mitchell of US Bank, foresees the economy here beginning to recover during the year, despite the combination of a national recession and large-scale layoffs.
As we begin to look ahead to better times, it may be the right moment to remember that the 1990s boom had its best-forgotten aspects. Even as we hope for recovery, most of us can do without some recent staples of the business culture.
It is a relief, after all, not to constantly hear, "The Internet changes everything." As best we can tell, the advent of the World Wide Web failed to repeal the business cycle, despite the boasts of obsessive mouse-clickers.
"Bricks-and-mortar" stores appear to be very much with us, even though the calendar already says 2002. Rather than being sources of amusement for the tech-savvy, the retailers in malls and on Main Street provide welcome sources of jobs and stability for many people.
The craze for stock options in one’s own company seems to have passed. It’s no wonder that the fad has died in the e-commerce sector following the bursting of the Internet bubble. But the all-chips-on-one-square strategy doesn’t look so good for former Enron employees, either, where the attempt to turn the public’s need for energy into a privatized and politicized roulette wheel carries its own valuable but painful lessons.
In the new economy of 2002, we may be spared hearing of people "retiring" at 35. Maybe with the passing of the get-rich-quick times, there will be more ideas for Social Security reforms that build from a sound base rather than seeking to turn a temporarily booming stock market into a cornerstone of long-term national policy.
The strong economy of the 1990s brought especially good times to the Pacific Northwest. Perhaps that caused a few swelled heads here: Not many cities name football bowl games after themselves.
We may have a bit rougher time than the rest of the country recovering from the recession, but there appears to be an upturn ahead. If we are a little less proud as we wait, that will have its benefits for us.
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