With an average of just 150 round-trip riders per day, demand for Sounder commuter rail service between Everett and Seattle has been underwhelming so far.
This week’s addition of a second southbound train in the morning and a second northbound trip in the afternoon should make the Sounder a viable option for more people. And soon-to-start construction to expand I-5 through Everett might convince more commuters to ride the rails.
A real verdict on the early success of Sounder, however, won’t come for a few more years. Two more daily round-trips are scheduled to be added by the end of 2007 (a schedule that’s in danger of slipping), and a stop in Mukilteo (adding to the one already in Edmonds) is planned to be ready in mid-2007. Only when all that happens will we begin to see whether there’s a substantial market for this Sounder route.
Transit planning involves a lot of guesswork. Future commuting patterns will be influenced by a number of factors that are subject to change. The picture of what kinds of transit will best serve the Everett-to-Seattle corridor 20 or 30 years from now is a very fuzzy one.
That fact should be front and center as policymakers discuss what to offer voters next year in the next phase of regional transit. Light rail between Northgate and Everett carries a huge pricetag – up to $4.2 billion in today’s dollars – and wouldn’t be operational any time soon. That’s an expensive leap of faith that riders will be there in great enough numbers to justify it.
Some are suggesting pushing ahead now with light rail in Everett, eventually joining the rest of the system in a “golden spike” model. Even a local rail system won’t come cheaply, though.
The well of transportation money clearly isn’t bottomless. With gas taxes rising to address state highway needs, and a vote on a regional roads package in the planning stages, the case for Sound Transit expansion will have to be convincing. Practical considerations, like cost and flexibility, will be crucial.
That suggests a possible emphasis on buses. Sound Transit’s regional express bus service is a success story in Snohomish County, with expanded park-and-ride lots and dedicated freeway ramps providing a popular option for commuters. Adding more and more-frequent routes might be a good next step.
So might building a bus rapid transit corridor along Highway 99, with dedicated running ways and frequent service. Such a system from downtown Everett to downtown Seattle would cost an estimated $250 million to $300 million.
The Sounder route between Everett and Seattle may yet become a success. But the early experience reaffirms that ridership projections aren’t certainties. It’s a reminder that when planning for expensive transit options like rail, we should approach with caution.
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