By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
Climate change is the result of burning fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases which warm the earth’s atmosphere. Turning down Earth’s thermostat requires building a zero-emission clean energy economy. Every increment of warming contributes to extreme weather and climate impacts. Urgency matters.
Across the globe, governments and utilities are working to reduce emissions, moving away from fossil fuels toward renewable clean energy. As they do, supply and demand for electricity is undergoing radical transformation.
Climate change is adding novel wrinkles to the changing dynamics of energy supply and demand. So, too, is the technology revolution. But the two are on a collision course between artificial intelligence and planetary physics. Real intelligence suggests we yield to planetary physics.
On the supply side, cost-effective renewable energy sources are rapidly emerging. Solar, wind and nuclear power are experiencing rapid growth and lower costs to produce. These new sources are replacing coal, oil and gas. Washington state enjoys relatively clean energy because of its reliance on hydropower and policy choices supporting renewable sources such as wind and solar.
Challenges on the supply side include battery storage, permitting of projects, and modernizing the electrical grid.
Renewable sources such as wind and solar produce electricity only when the wind blows or the sun shines. Utilities are developing battery storage options that can capture and release energy to meet fluctuating demands.
Permitting renewable energy can be complex and uncertain, adding time and costs to projects. Nuclear plants are particularly time consuming and expensive to design, permit and build.
Upgrading the power grid is a key factor effecting energy supply. Renewable energy such as wind and solar needs to be connected to the grid to deliver energy where and when it is needed. Surges in winter and summer demand could outpace supply within the next decade. The capacity of today’s grid is not sufficient to meet tomorrow’s needs.
Developing new renewable energy sources, battery storage and upgrading the grid is expensive and takes time. Additional capital resources will be necessary. Projects in the planning stages today will not likely be on line until the 2030s.
On the demand side the goal posts are moving. Energy demand forecasts made just a few years no longer reflect current demand. New demand has surged, responding to reducing emissions and the technology revolution: AI and IT, artificial intelligence and internet technology.
Climate change is increasing electricity demand for transportation, EVs, air conditioning and related clean energy initiatives. Utilities are trying to meet these new demands with renewables thereby reducing emissions.
But the real game changer is the technology revolution. There is an explosion in new energy demand resulting from data centers that have powered the growth of AI and IT. These centers consume enormous amounts of electricity to power servers and to cool them, disposing of the considerable heat they generate.
Growth projections for AI and IT are literally off the charts. They apply to all sectors: business, government, education, medicine, science and in our homes. The internet of things is driving the technology revolution. Every text message, iPhone photo, Amazon delivery, Zoom call and YouTube video depend on data stored in a data center; forever!
All that data use and storage is driving the explosion in data centers. It is not clear just how big, how fast and how long new growth for data centers will be. What is clear is major tech companies including Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon are investing heavily in AI and the data centers necessary to power it. They clearly see this as their future.
As spikes in energy demand exceed projected supply, two results are likely. First, the law of supply and demand will increase rates, affecting energy costs for everyone. Second, utilities trying to meet increased demand face pressure to go slow converting to renewable sources of energy, or revert back to electricity generated from fossil fuels such as gas or coal. In either case this will result in increased emissions. Neither of these outcomes are desirable.
We are entering a revolutionary time for energy and technology. A stable atmosphere depends on transitioning to a clean energy economy. The technology revolution depends on an energy supply that does not yet exist.
AI and IT are supposed to help solve problems. If their applications make global warming worse, we are on a fool’s errand. These trends are not sustainable. It turns out Siri, Alexa and ChatGPT are expensive house guests. Let’s hope they have real answers for these difficult questions.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past Chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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