Election Day, that way station on the highway of perpetual politics, has come and gone. We may not yet know the outcome of some close contests, but the voting is done. Now, separated from the complications of campaign calculus, it’s time to consider the challenges facing this group of new and returning office holders.
It’s important to recognize that these are not ordinary times and challenges. Many of the people I’ve talked with lately have expressed a variant of a comment that goes something like this: “No matter who wins, we’ll get by. We always have.”
Those of us who have been around a while tend to approach elections, politics and government with a kind of jaded resignation. Like actors in a noir mystery, we avoid disappointment by not expecting much. Change is a sucker’s bet, we say, punctuating our cynicism with a phantom cigarette. We’ve heard the crisis-and-opportunity talk before. Hope isn’t audacious, you know, it is just another tool pulled out to win elections.
Get too attached to the seen-it-all cynicism, though, and you fail to recognize turning points, the pivots that can set a city, region or state in a new direction. We have arrived at such a juncture. And there’s time for neither cynicism nor complacency.
Politics and public policy will shape how our economy responds to unprecedented challenges. After the recent upheavals, our experience tells us that things will eventually settle back to normal. That misreads the present moment, which is characterized by rapid restructuring, heightened competitive pressures, and an incessant search for market advantage.
In a prosperous state like ours, normalcy has generally meant prosperity and complacency has been endemic. But good times should never be taken for granted. With the election behind us, perhaps our state leaders will now acknowledge the economic crisis confronting us.
There’s no room for resignation and no reason to assume that prosperity is our birthright. Our economy faces risks not seen in a generation. Critical choices face the next Legislature. Muddling through won’t be good enough.
The $3.2 billion projected budget shortfall discussed over the last few months will likely approach $4 billion by the time the governor releases her budget in December. The next official state revenue forecast will be released in a few weeks. Economic problems have increased substantially since the last forecast in September. Another substantial cut in projected state tax collections is assured.
For obvious, if unsatisfactory, reasons, candidates ducked substantive budget questions like ninjas dodging throwing stars. If anyone advocated a tax hike, I missed it. Fine. Managing the shortfall without raising taxes is the right call. But now we should begin hearing how they’ll rein in runaway spending.
Will lawmakers reject the collective bargaining agreement granting state workers pay hikes and generous health-care benefits? Will they tighten eligibility requirements for state-subsidized health care? Pull back on increases in school funding? Or do they plan on finding and eliminating that elusive budget line item for waste, fraud and abuse?
The decisions involve priorities, values and principles. The long-deferred public dialog must now begin.
A sustainable budget depends on economic growth. There, we have trouble. As reported in The Herald on Monday, credible aerospace analysts think Boeing may move its commercial airplane division to the Southeast over the next decade. So much for guaranteed job security.
Can our state’s political leaders do anything to influence that decision? Will they try?
Of course, our competitiveness challenge is not just, or even primarily, about Boeing. It’s about assuring that our public policies create the conditions required for all entrepreneurs to succeed.
The candidates elected Tuesday must concentrate on making this a state where people can profitably and confidently create jobs and futures. Recent events have compounded our risk. Mergers and acquisitions have reduced our complement of corporate headquarters. Executives with no regional allegiance will be making the next round of location and expansion decisions, seeking the best return on shareholder investment.
If we choose to ignore the competition, we choose to lose. Let our elected representatives know we expect them to play to win.
No political agenda can succeed if the economy fails.
Richard S. Davis writes on public policy, economics and politics. His e-mail address is richardsdavis@gmail.com.
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