Paid-leave program already showing signs of bloating

The 13-member task force created to sweat the details of the state’s new paid family leave law hasn’t had much fun lately. True, the activist group Moms Rising gave them tiny cypress trees as a symbolic thank-you for helping families grow stronger. But seedlings provide little cover — not nearly enough to overshadow the harsh news task-force members received from the two state agencies that may have to run the program.

Two facts stand out. No one really knows how many people will take advantage of paid leave. And the overhead costs are ridiculous.

Lawmakers knew that from the beginning. Fiscal notes — rough cost estimates provided by state agencies during the legislative session — showed that bureaucratic overhead could claim more than 40 percent of program spending in the first few years. Numbers like that led legislators to prune benefits and punt tough decisions to the task force that now must figure out who’s going to run the program and how to pay for it.

Given the complexity of the plan, the significant unknowns and the make-up of the task force — eight legislators (four from each party), three family leave advocates and two business representatives) — consensus is unlikely. (Disclosure: the two business representatives are AWB members.)

All we know for sure is that come Oct. 1, 2009, all workers are entitled to a maximum of $250 a week in paid time off for up to five weeks to care for a newborn or newly adopted child.

I’ve called such stuff “long fuse politics.” Gather everyone together for a bill-signing photo op with the governor and leave town before things blow up. Except, in this case, there’s no dodging ultimate responsibility: lawmakers must deal with the task force recommendations in 2008.

Either the Department of Labor and Industries (L&I) or the Employment Security Department (ESD) will end up running the program. Or they may share responsibilities. No one knows. Neither agency seems eager to step up, but both have said what they’ll need to do the job.

L&I, which runs the state workers’ compensation program, estimates it will take about $22 million to set up the program. ESD, which handles unemployment insurance, pegs its start-up cost at $7 million to $9 million. Both agencies think that, once things are up and running, ongoing costs will fall in the range of $6 million to $9 million a year.

As few as 25,000 people a year may claim benefits — or maybe twice that many. Similarly, the estimates of benefit costs range from $23 million to nearly $50 million. Assuming actual costs fall somewhere in the middle, we’re looking at about 25 percent in ongoing administrative overhead. Too high.

Program advocates appear both skeptical and dismissive of the costs. They point out that overhead is much lower for the complex workers’ compensation program. On the other hand, they say it’s just not that much money given the size of the state budget. (There’s an argument that should make everyone feel better.)

Even popular programs — and the idea of paid family leave is very popular — should not be launched cavalierly. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding the benefits and costs and the impact on employers. Equally troubling: The straitjacket state plan may end up supplanting more generous and flexible benefits offered by many businesses.

Later this month, the task force takes up the question of how to pay for the program. Last session, legislators considered a 2-cent-an-hour tax on employees. Now, it’s not clear. They might split the cost between employer and worker. Or, it’s been suggested that the program might find a home in the state budget. To kick things off, lawmakers borrowed $18 million from a workers’ compensation fund. It’s not an auspicious beginning.

California is the only other state that has adopted a paid family leave law. Look there for a glimpse of our future. About the time the Moms were delivering their tiny trees, California lawmakers sent Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger legislation expanding that state’s program to include grandparents, in-laws and siblings.

Benefit schemes tend to grow unchecked. Task force members work in the dark, lacking critical information. I think the Moms missed the mark. Mushrooms would have been a more appropriate thank-you gift.

Richard S. Davis, vice president-communications of the Association of Washington Business, writes every other Wednesday. His columns do not necessarily reflect the views of AWB. Write Davis at richardd@awb.org or Association of Washington Business, P.O. Box 658, 1414 Cherry Street SE, Olympia, WA 98507-0658.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Opinion

toon
Editorial cartoons for Tuesday, Feb. 11

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

CNA Nina Prigodich, right, goes through restorative exercises with long term care patient Betty Long, 86, at Nightingale's View Ridge Care Center on Friday, Feb. 10, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Editorial: Boost state Medicaid funding for long-term care

With more in need of skilled nursing and assisted-living services, funding must keep up to retain staff.

Sentencing reforms more complicated than column described

I read Todd Welch’s Jan. 29 column. He is certainly entitled to… Continue reading

President Trump running nation like his failed businesses

We’ve seen it before; President Trump will do or say anything to… Continue reading

Intent of Trump’s nominees is to subvert good government

It is clear that Donald Trump has something specific in mind with… Continue reading

Comment: Musk’s USAID shutdown an attack on most vulnerable

Even promises of ‘waivers’ are falling short and allowing medical efforts to dry up, endangering millions.

bar graph, pie chart and diagrams isolated on white, 3d illustration
Editorial: Don’t let state’s budget numbers intimidate you

With budget discussions starting soon, a new website explains the basics of state’s budget crisis.

Curtains act as doors for a handful of classrooms at Glenwood Elementary on Monday, Sept. 9, 2024 in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Editorial: Schools’ building needs point to election reform

Construction funding requests in Arlington and Lake Stevens show need for a change to bond elections.

FILE- In this Nov. 14, 2017, file photo Jaìme Ceja operates a forklift while loading boxes of Red Delicious apples on to a trailer during his shift in an orchard in Tieton, Wash. Cherry and apple growers in Washington state are worried their exports to China will be hurt by a trade war that escalated on Monday when that country raised import duties on a $3 billion list of products. (Shawn Gust/Yakima Herald-Republic via AP, File)
Editorial: Trade war would harm state’s consumers, jobs

Trump’s threat of tariffs to win non-trade concessions complicates talks, says a state trade advocate.

Comment: Real dangers loom with Trump’s incoherent trade policy

Even if Trump could settle on a justification for his tariffs, the results could leave the country far. weaker.

toon
Editorial cartoons for Monday, Feb. 10

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Comment: Trump can go only as far as the courts will allow

Most of Trump’s executive orders are likely to face court challenges, setting the limits of presidential power.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.