The midterm electorate delivered a sensible message last week. Inevitably, it’s been cast in partisan terms. Republicans made historically significant gains, taking control of the U.S. Senate and increasing their margins in the U.S. House of Representatives. Across the nation they added to their control of legislative chambers and increased the number of Republican governors.
The message of the election, though, has more to do with principled pragmatism than partisanship. Using national trends to interpret our state elections can be risky. We’re different out here and proud of it. But last week showed some unmistakable signs that the wave sweeping most of the country splashed us as well. Consider just three issues: Republican gains in the Legislature, Tom Steyer’s squandered cash, and the class size reduction initiative.
Despite heavy outside spending in targeted races, Republicans now have an absolute 25-24 majority in the Senate. They also appear likely to gain four House seats. It won’t be a majority, but it’s enough to make them players next session.
Gov. Inslee called it a status quo election. Others say voters chose gridlock. That’s not it. There is no political status quo. The sands are always shifting, driven by external events and the changing dynamics within party caucuses.
The legislative elections were framed by economic insecurity, ongoing budget challenges, and the state Supreme Court’s McCleary mandate to add billions to public school spending. Considering all that, voters returned a fiscally conservative Senate majority and narrowed liberal control of the House.
That’s not a call for gridlock. Legislatures are on rheostats, not on-off switches. Get something done, but not too much, not too fast, and not at too high a cost.
The economy also dominated the national election. Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville report that majorities of both Democrats and Republicans “said their vote was about the economy, jobs and wages.”
That’s one reason California hedge-fund billionaire and environmental evangelist Tom Steyer came up short this year. Although he spent $57 million from his personal stash to tilt the election, most Steyer-backed Senate and gubernatorial candidates finished second. He plopped $1.4 million in three state Senate races here hoping to deliver a Senate majority sympathetic to Gov. Inslee’s climate change agenda.
The targeted candidates will return to Olympia in January in influential roles. One, Sen. Andy Hill, will be a key leader in budget policy and a potential 2016 gubernatorial candidate. Another, Sen. Doug Ericksen, will play a decisive role in climate change legislation. The third, Sen. Steve O’Ban, earned The News Tribune endorsement, which called him “among the most thoughtful and articulate conservatives in the Legislature.”
A September Pew Research Center poll found the environment ranked eighth in a list of issues voters considered “very important” to their vote for Congress. The economy, health care and terrorism topped the list.
Even those who believe the issue is important are skeptical of a climate change agenda they believe threatens paychecks. They want assurance that proposals make economic and environmental sense. Inslee pledges to move forward, anyway. The 2015 Legislature has more pressing challenges than carbon politics.
Which brings us to Initiative 1351. Despite early polling indicating overwhelming support, it’s likely to pass with less than 51 percent backing. Opponents were outspent $5 million to $1, but voters again showed sensible skepticism. With a four-year price tag of $4.7 billion and no dedicated funding, the initiative is a fiscal fantasy and bad education policy. Lawmakers should quickly reject it. To get a true test of public opinion, they should refer it to the voters tied to a tax plan, maybe the 2-cent sales tax hike required to pay for it.
Turnout here was about 50 percent. Of the 46 states with at least one statewide candidate on the ballot only six had higher turnout. The aberrant 1351 outcome notwithstanding — it cannot stand — the voters sent a pragmatic message.
They want policymakers to concentrate on expanding economic opportunity. They are not interested in fundamental transformation and grand promises. They’re calling on lawmakers, rather, to return to the fundamentals, the things government must get right. Balance the budget. Maintain roads and highways. And make sure every student gets a good education.
It’s a good message.
Richard S. Davis is president of the Washington Research Council. Email rsdavis@simeonpartners.com. This is Davis’ final regular column for The Herald.
Correction: Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this column misstated the amount opponents of I-1351 were outspent by supporters. The column now reflects the author’s original intent.
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