‘Boots on the ground” is the term used to describe U.S. soldiers serving in a combat zone overseas. As a veteran of two tours of duty in Iraq, I know what it means to fill a pair of those boots. That’s why I was encouraged when I heard that the Department of Defense (DOD), for the very first time, has officially recognized climate change as a serious national security issue.
The DOD’s recent Quadrennial Defense Review — an assessment of the security threats facing the United States, now and in the future — concluded that climate change will play a “significant role in shaping the future security environment,” and it could be an “accelerant of instability or conflict.”
The review echoes the conclusions of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, which estimated that as many as 800 million people could be facing increasing food and water shortages in the next 15 years from this threat. Their analysis cautions that wide-spread hunger, population displacement and economic ruin caused by climate change could lead to political instability and the collapse of civil society in less-developed countries. This in turn could lead to millions of “environmental refugees” and create both national security threats and humanitarian crises.
These reports struck a chord, reminding me of my work during my second tour of duty in Iraq. I served as a civil affairs officer in the city and district of Tal ’Afar, in northwest Iraq. A city of 250,000 inhabitants, Tal ’Afar sits 40 miles from the Syrian border and has been the center of some of the most intense fighting throughout the war — a place where insurgents continue to be a danger.
My role was to help the local government repair its infrastructure and rebuild its economy. However, the region faced another daunting challenge: a six-year drought. The region once produced large quantities of wheat and barley, but the drought and an absence of a viable irrigation system meant that this once-productive agricultural area lay in economic ruin. As one Iraqi described to me, 10 years ago the wheat grew past his chest; today it was barely a foot tall.
The unemployment rate was astronomical, resulting in large numbers of economic refugees. With a meager $3 million budget, we provided targeted financial support to local firms to work on reconstruction projects, thereby strengthening the local economy and employing workers. Our goals were both altruistic and strategic: Reconstruction made life better for people and gave them hope for the future, while paying them to work reduced the likelihood they would join the insurgency.
Scientists predict that many natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, could be stronger or more frequent because of climate change. A 2009 report by the U.N. Environment Program states that global warming will lead to “major changes in precipitation patterns on the (African) continent, which could lead to food shortages and increased desertification.”
Another study identified India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Indonesia as countries with large populations in low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea-level rise caused by global warming.
We will also face an increased risk of armed conflict. As retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni has noted, “It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability, or climate change and terrorism.” And former U.S. Sen. and Navy Secretary John Warner — who now works with the Pew Project on National Security, Energy and Climate — has warned that, “we ignore these facts at the peril of our national security and at great risk to those in uniform who serve this nation.”
That is why we need government policies to increase our investment in clean-energy technologies such as solar, wind and other types of renewable energy, and to dramatically improve energy conservation. Otherwise, my experience in dealing with economic refugees in Iraq could provide a preview of what the U.S. military will be facing if climate change goes on unabated.
As conditions worsen, we will have to put boots on the ground, either to fight or to engage in large-scale, long-term humanitarian efforts. But we should do everything we can now to lessen the extent of global warming’s potential impact on our planet. We owe our men and women of the U.S. armed forces nothing less.
Kevin Furey, a resident of Helena, Mont., is a first lieutenant in the U.S. Army Reserve and recently completed his second tour of duty in Iraq.
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