2012-13 preview: Ryan Murray (who’s coming back?)

One question looms over Everett’s 2012-13 season. One question, above all, will determine the Silvertips’ fate:

Whither Ryan Murray?

Everett’s captain and star defenseman is heading into the NHL draft this summer, where he’s projected to be taken as high as second overall. Many believe Murray is NHL ready. So will Murray be back in Everett next season?

Murray is heading into his 19-year-old season. Since he will be drafted out of the WHL, he is ineligible to play professionally in the minors. That means there are just two options for where Murray plays next season: either for the NHL team that drafts him, or for Everett.

Most believe Murray is ready for the NHL. He’s already spent three full seasons in the WHL and shown he can be a dominant player at this level. He has that rare combination of speed, skill, judgment and maturity that makes him both physically and emotionally ready to make the jump.

However, it all depends on which organization takes him. Some NHL teams tend to rush their high draft picks, others like to let their top prospects season a little longer in juniors. It also tends to be more difficult to make it in the NHL as a teenager as a d-man than as a forward.

Then there’s the potential of NHL labor strife. The league’s collective bargaining agreement with the player’s union expires at the end of the season. I’ve heard it suggested the sides are far apart on a new agreement. It wouldn’t take much of a work stoppage to force the 19-year-olds back to juniors for another year.

Whether Murray plays for the Tips next season will have a profound effect on the team’s fortunes. This is a question that won’t be answered until September at the earliest, and could potentially linger into next February. So get ready for long days of uncertainty, Everett fans.

OK, what about the rest of the potential returners? Let’s start with the overager situation. Everett has five players eligible to fill next season’s three overage roster slots: forwards Ryan Harrison, Cody Fowlie and JT Barnett, defenseman Dominik Bittner, and goaltender Kent Simpson.

This could go a lot of ways. It’s believed Simpson will be playing pro next season, but he hasn’t signed an entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks yet. Bittner would be a two-spotter, counting against both the overager and Euro limits. But if Murray joins graduated overagers Brennan Yadlowski and Josh Caron as former Tips, then Everett will be desperately short of experience on defense, and bringing Bittner back as a two-spotter appears more appealing. Harrison, after getting the call to finish out this season in the AHL, also has a chance to play pro next season. So I could see a scenario where any combination of those five players could be Everett’s three overagers next season. And there’s no guarantee new general manager Garry Davidson won’t look outside the organization for an overager, too.

Up front the Tips have plenty returning. It’s possible everyone but graduated leading scorer Josh Birkholz could be back. The key, I believe, will be the 19-year-olds. At the beginning of the season the jury was still out on Everett’s 1993-born forwards. However, the progress made by Josh Winquist, the addition of Reid Petryk, and the flashes shown by Manraj Hayer and Zach McPhee after they overcame their injuries, suggest that may be an influential group. Add in whatever overagers make the team and a now-seasoned Kohl Bauml, and there’s a reasonable chance of having a solid nucleus.

Everett should be covered in goal, too, regardless of Simpson’s status. Back-up Austin Lotz showed lots of promise this season, and the team would be comfortable moving ahead with Lotz as the No. 1 if Simpson isn’t back.

The real issue is on defense. It’s possible the Tips will lose their top four d-men: Murray, Yadlowski, Caron and Bittner. The other potential returners — Evan Morden, Nick Walters, Lucas Grayson, Austin Adam — are short on experience, and there’s a lack of a puck mover in that group. If Murray isn’t back, this is the area that will require sorting out.

Next: 2012-13 preview: Seth Jones (who’s coming in?)