AFC East
This is Part II of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
State of the team: The Patriots were a team that came into the season with high expectations for fantasy owners. From Tom Brady to Randy Moss to Wes Welker (heck even the defense was good last year), New England led many fantasy owners deep into the playoffs last year. Well that won’t happen in 2008. The injury to Tom Brady has made the Patriots a middling team at best. Matt Cassel will have solid games (see Monday night against Denver), but they’re going to be far and few between, and that affects numbers of the whole offense.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Seahawks, at Raiders, CARDINALS
QB: Many people might think that Cassel is coming around after Monday’s three-TD performance against Denver. Don’t bet on it. The Broncos’ defense is horrid and the Patriots’ run game did a nice job of allowing Cassel time and space to throw. Many Brady owners picked up Cassel after Brady went down, hoping he could post respectable numbers. Besides Monday he hasn’t, and he won’t have more than three games like that down the stretch. He isn’t the quarterback to lead anybody to a deep run in the playoffs.
RB: Laurence Maroney going on injured reserve wasn’t much of a blow to fantasy owners because if you were relying on him for anything you weren’t going anywhere in the first place. Sammy Morris looked good on Monday night, running through Denver’s defense to the tune of 138 yards. He did hurt his knee and looks to be out at least one week. In his absence Lamont Jordan and Benjarvus Green-Ellis will get the lion’s share of the carries. But, like the beginning of the season, the problem in New England’s backfield remains, too many cooks in the kitchen, especially with Jordan returning.
Receivers: Unfortunately for Moss owners, he’s going to be as up and down this season as Cassel – as Cassel goes so goes Moss. He’s had two strong games out of the past three, but, with solid defenses like Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami and Pittsburgh coming up, I don’t see that continuing over the next six weeks. The one bright spot for Moss owners is his playoff sked. Can you see the Seahawks stopping Moss deep? I can’t. How about that Raiders game? A little payback on Moss’ mind, perhaps. And Arizona’s been known to give up points on the East Coast (the Jets game, anyone?). As for Welker, if you’re in a point-per-reception league, he’ll continue to post good numbers. He’s on pace for 112 receptions and with Cassel continuing to look for him as a safety outlet, he’ll probably make it. He’s not going to score more than five touchdowns this season, however. But like I said he’s a great play in ppr leagues. After a solid season last year, Benjamin Watson was supposed to have a breakout year. Well that didn’t happen. He’s failed to record a catch in three games and has just 57 receiving yards. He’s not worth a roster spot.
DefenseThis has been as up-and-down a unit as Cassel. Good performances like Monday’s are offset by games like the San Diego one. The Patriots are giving up a respectable 19.7 points per game, but expect that number to climb with an already susceptible secondary getting weaker with the loss of Rodney Harrison. The team’s 10 sacks and 11 takeaways this season is middle of the road and won’t improve over the next nine weeks. Unlike last season, this defense isn’t a difference-maker.
NEW YORK JETS
State of the team: It’s fitting that the Jets find themselves at 3-3 at this point in the season. Who really are the Jets? The team that annihilated Arizona or the team that lost to the Raiders? This seems like a team destined to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs in a season when they really shouldn’t. Brett Favre has brought a spark (see the Arizona game), but he’s also failed to deliver in big moments (see the Raiders game). This team will continue to be a roller-coaster ride for fantasy owners as well. One week great, the next horrible. Hang on, Favre owners.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at 49ers, BILLS, at Seahawks
QB: At first glance, Favre’s numbers look respectable. He’s averaging that magical benchmark for fantasy QBs: 220 ypg and more than 2 TD pg. But a closer look reveals a problem. He’s thrown for one TD over the past two weeks and his numbers are inflated by that Arizona performance (289 yards; 6 TDs). But I think if you own Favre, you play Favre. The potential is too great. He’s going to put up big numbers in games like this Sunday at home against K.C. and in two weeks with the Rams coming to town. But then the inevitable poor performances against teams like the Bills, Patriots and Titans on the road loom. His playoff schedule looks good with the 49ers and Seahawks, but those are two cross-country trips in three weeks for an old man. Expect him to average 220/2 over the next nine weeks, but good luck guessing when the 320yard/5TD or the 180/0 performances pop up.
RB: It seems that Favre’s arm has opened some holes for Thomas Jones. He’s had two strong weeks in a row following the Arizona game. Defenses are no doubt keeping their safeties back to protect against Favre and Jones has been the beneficiary. The positives for Jones are he’s going to get the lion’s share of the carries in this offense (he’s averaging 18 carries pg) and he’ll get all the goalline carries. The downside is that he’s going to throw out a few stinkers over the next nine weeks like his game against Arizona (46 yards) when the team decides to abandon the run and let Favre throw the ball all over the place. Playing Jones on a regular basis will likely get you to the playoffs, but he’s not the kind of player to help you make a deep run.
Receivers: Favre has helped both Jets wide receivers, especially Jerricho Cotchery. Before suffering leg injury last week (Cotchery looks to be a game-time decision this Sunday), Cotchery was posting nice numbers and had become a must-start every week. Once he’s healthy again he’ll return to that status. After a slow start Laveranues Coles started to get comfortable with Favre, averaging 72 ypg and nearly a TD pg. But now a concussion and a thigh injury has hampered Coles. Like Cotchery, though, Coles is a nice option once he gets healthy. Chansi Stuckey was a nice surprise early, catching a touchdown in each of his first three games, but he’s tailed off since. He is a nice option this Sunday and as long as Coles is out, but after that don’t bother.
Defense The Jets’ defense has been solid in the first six games, scoring two TDs and giving up an average of just 17.2 points pg if you throw out the debacle in San Diego. The teams 20 sacks is a good sign, and New York will likely improve upon its 10 takeaways with teams like San Fran, Seattle, K.C. and St. Louis on the docket. The Jets are a solid play every week.
BUFFALO BILLS
State of the team: The Bills are one of the surprise teams of ’08. Sitting at 5-1 and in the catbird seat of the AFC East has Buffalo thinking playoffs and possible first-round bye. I think they make the playoffs with a 10-6 record in their future. I think they’ll lose to the Dolphins this weekend and then drop the remainder of their road games. Buffalo is a decent team with a good defense and a passable offense. I just think their shortcomings (playing from behind, their mediocre run defense) will be exposed by teams in the second half. But their schedule is so weak they’ll make the playoffs – and possibly win the division.
Fantasy playoff schedule: DOLPHINS, at Jets, at Broncos
QB: Look up the word serviceable in the NFL dictionary and you’ll see a picture of Trent Edwards. The second-year player out of Stanford is doing just enough to let the Bills’ defense and solid running game win games. He’s averaging a little over 200 yards and under a TD per game. Even though he was knocked out very early in the Arizona loss, in terms of fantasy those are not serviceable numbers.
RB: For a team with a strong defense and a run-based offense, Buffalo’s run game has been surprisingly mediocre. Marshawn Lynch is getting two-thirds of the team’s carries, but he has yet to go over the century mark this season. He does have five TDs and 19 catches for 113 yards, so he is a must-start every week. Watch for Lynch to continue putting up around 100 total ypg and keep on his pace for 13 touchdowns. Throw in the fact he has two favorable matchups in the playoffs (Miami at home and the Broncos putrid run defense) and Lynch is a nice option going into the playoffs. If Lynch gets hurt, Fred Jackson, who is averaging 4.3 ypc is a great pickup.
Receivers: With the QB spot settled, Lee Evans is having a fantastic year. He has yet to go under 65 yards receiving in a game and he’s scored three TDs. He is Edwards No. 1 target and he’s a deep threat once again. He’s a must-start every week. There really aren’t any other options on this team in terms of fantasy. Josh Reed is averaging nearly 45 ypg, but he has yet to score. James Hardy, who was a sleeper coming into the season, has scored a TD, but has caught passes in only two games. Neither of these guys are worth a roster spot. TE Robert Royal had a great game in the opener (6 catches, 1 for a TD), but hasn’t replicated it since and is only worth anything if you’re in a 12-team league and completely desperate.
Defense In fantasy, Buffalo’s defense has been in the middle of the road. Thanks to only 12 sacks and just nine takeaways, the Bills are on the lower end. I expect that to change over the second half. If you get points for special teams TDs, Buffalo will likely score another two with Roscoe Parrish returning and expect those sack numbers and takeaway numbers to climb over the final nine games. If the Bills’ D is on the waiver wire in your league pick them up and play them with confidence, especially against Cleveland, K.C., San Fran and Miami in Weeks 11-14.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
State of the team: You can bring up the Dolphins without bringing up the Wildcat, the offensive formation they’ve been using that puts Ronnie Brown in the shotgun and lets him do with the ball what he will – run or pass. Despite the fact they’ve doubled their win total from a year ago, this still isn’t a very good team as it showed against Baltimore at home last week. They make it interesting every week, though, and they’re one of the hardest teams to handicap. They get pummeled by the Ravens one week and beat a solid Chargers team the next.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Bills, 49ERS, at Chiefs
QB: Chad Pennington has had sort of a rebirth in Miami. He’s averaging 232 yards and a TD pg. But the problem is the Wildcat is taking valuable snaps away from him. In the Dolphins win over New England, Pennington had no TD passes despite the fact Miami scored 38 points. That can’t happen to your quarterback and it’s the reason Pennington is wallowing on most leagues’ waiver wire.
RB: Because of the Wildcat, Ronnie Brown is an intriguing fantasy guy. He may run for a touchdown, catch one and now he could throw for one. There are three problems with Brown. One, he’s an all or nothing guy. In two games he’s compiled 264 yards and six touchdowns. In the other four games he’s totaled 216 yards and just two scores. Second, he goes as Miami goes. His two big games came in Miami’s two wins. He’s been mediocre at best in the other four. With Miami likely to win three games over the next nine that’s not good numbers. Third, Ricky Williams is poaching just enough carries from Brown to make him a liability from week to week. I’m not saying to sit Brown, but you’ll have to take the good with the bad and he’s likely going to cost you in the playoffs, likely in week 14 when Miami travels to chilly Buffalo.
Receivers: Ted Ginn Jr. was supposed to lead this team, but he hasn’t stepped into that role yet. He’s shown signs of improving (three of his past four games have been solid), but he has yet to score and isn’t the deep threat I think most people thought he’d be. Greg Camarillo leads this team in receiving with 27 catches for 337 yards and a score, but he has yet to go over 74 yards in a game. Don’t use either of these guys unless you’re desperate. If you do, go Ginn – more upside. The real threat here is Anthony Fasano. He’s tailed off a bit over the past two games, but he’s a threat to score each week and he’s a pretty large part of this offense.
Defense You can likely do better than this unit, but with the 49ers at home and K.C. on the road in the playoffs this unit could be a nice sleeper. They have 15 sacks this season and eight takeaways so they are active. They have yet to score a defensive touchdown, but that should change. If you’re saddled with an underachieving defense like Dallas or Jacksonville, pick up Miami. It can’t hurt.
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