This is Part VI of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go:
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
State of the team: With a stout run defense and a strong run game behind Adrian Peterson, most people thought the Vikings were a good bet to make the playoffs. They better hurry up and start winning some games because they’ll be staring at a 7-9 season is they don’t. Minnesota lost three of its first four games and benched Tarvaris Jackson after the second game of the season and inserted Gus Frerotte, who has been OK. Minnesota has won two of three to improve to 3-4, but its last game, a 48-41 loss to Chicago, was embarrassing. I don’t think Minnesota is a better team than Green Bay so it’ll have to win a wild card to make it. That being said, the Vikings do have a favorable stretch to end the season (BEARS, at Lions, at Cardinals, FALCONS, GIANTS) and could finish 4-1, especially if New York is resting its starters for the playoffs. That’s still a tall order and I don’t think Gus and the guys have it in them. The Vikings will finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Lions, at Cardinals, FALCONS
QB: Nevermind the past two games in which Frerotte has nearly passed for 300 yards in each game, this is a run-based offense that asks him to be merely a facilitator. Don’t bother with him.
RB: With the expectations he had lashed to him coming into the season, Peterson has seemed to be a bit of a disappointment. But that isn’t so. He’s still putting up good numbers if not scoring as much as some owners expected. He’s totaled at least 100 yards in five of the Vikings’ seven games and has had only one stinker (Week 6 at New Orleans, 41 total yards). Unless he gets injured, expect Peterson to run for another 800 yards and 8 TDs. And look at that playoff schedule; wow! If you own him, count your blessings and if you can somehow deal for him, do it. Chester Taylor is of course what he was at the beginning of the season: a handcuff. That’s it.
Receivers: After starting the season slow, the newest addition to the Vikings’ receiving corps, Bernard Berrian has been a nice surprise. Berrian, who had just 38 yards in the opener and then didn’t catch a pass in the second game, is averaging nearly 96 ypg and has three scores. He seems to have filled the role of go-to guy in this offense quite well and he and Frerotte have a nice thing going. He’s carved out a nice play in fantasy rosters as well. At this point he’s good No. 2 option and a great No. 3 guy or flex option. Bobby Wade is averaging 50 ypg, but he hasn’t scored and he’s not likely to explode any time soon. Aundrae Allison, Sidney Rice and Garrett Mills are all unplayable right now.
Defense Minnesota’s defense has been somewhat disappointing in real life, but in fantasy it’s a stat-stuffer. The Vikings have 16 sacks, 11 turnovers, two touchdowns and a safety and even three block if your league likes that sort of thing. The only downside is the Vikings are giving up an average of nearly 24 ppg, but if your league doesn’t count points-against or doesn’t weigh it heavily than this defense is a good one. Continue to use it with confidence. One warning: If Pat and Kevin Williams are dinged for violating the drug policy, Minnesota’s run defense will be affected. Keep an eye on the situation and if you have better options than you might want to consider them.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
State of the team: This has been a hot-and-cold team. Green Bay started the season strong, going 2-0 with two big wins against division rivals out of the gates. Then the Packers lost three straight, including a bad loss to Atlanta at home. Since, Green Bay has humbled the Seahawks at Qwest and dismantled Indianapolis at Lambeau. The Packers are coming off a bye in Week 8. The down streak had a lot to do with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The offense has been consistently good. Two big games against Chicago in the second half will likely determine who wins the division. I think they’re better than Chicago, so they’ll win the division.
Fantasy playoff schedule: TEXANS, at Jaguars, at Bears
QB: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been just a pleasant surprise for Packers fans he’s been a nice surprise for fantasy owners who took a chance on him late in their drafts. Rodgers is averaging nearly 240 ypg and has 15 total touchdowns, including three rushing. Those rushing touchdowns are like gold to most fantasy owners – not so much to Ryan Grant owners. Rodgers has had a shoulder issue since Week 3, but he seems to be getting better each week and hasn’t missed a game because of it. If you own Rodgers, keep him in your lineup even through tough matchups like Tennessee and Carolina. The only guy your benching him for at this point is Drew Brees. If he stays healthy he should replicate his first half over the next eight weeks (maybe a few more passing TDs and only one rushing), which is all his owners can ask for.
RB: Ryan Grant was maybe the Pickup of the Year in 2008, but he’s been just OK in 2007. He’s averaging a little more than 66 yards pg and has caught four passes for just eight yards (yuck) compared to 30 catches a year ago – obviously Rodgers isn’t looking to his checkdowns as much as Favre did. Like I wrote in a column three weeks ago, I like Grant to have a good second half. He’s rushed for 90 and 105 yards in his past two games, including his first touchdown of the season against Indy two weeks ago. He’s too good of a fit for this offense and gets too many touches not to be effective. If you own him he’s a great second option or flex guy. I say get him in your lineup unless your loaded at the RB spot. He’ll score more TDs going forward.
Receivers: Donald Driver is just the possession guy in this offense now; this is the Greg Jennings Show from here on out. Driver is averaging just 11.4 ypc and has just two scores. He has yet to eclipse the 76 yard mark and, besides a long bomb TD that was called back in the opener, he’s not getting open deep. Jennings, on the other hand, is. He’s averaging nearly 20 ypc and, besides a stinker against Indy, his worst game is 84 yards receiving against Seattle. He should score six more TDs over the final nine games and is a must-play in your offense. Driver, on the other, hand is just a No. 3 or flex option at this point. James Jones has shown flashes, but he’s buried here. If Jennings gets hurt, though, trust his numbers to explode. Donald Lee is averaging just 20 ypg and has two scores. This is not the same offense that made Bubba Franks a TD machine three years ago.
Defense This was one of the best defenses in fantasy last season and it hasn’t been bad this year, despite a rash of injuries. DT Cullen Jenkins is out for the year and that’s big loss, but Al Harris is expected back this week and Atari Bigby is on the mend. A.J. Hawk is getting better as well. This unit has 12 sacks, but its bread and butter is the turnover-into-touchdown. Of the 14 turnovers they’ve forced, the Packers have 13 interceptions and five of them for touchdowns. That’s amazing. You have to play this unit even if they do give up a lot of points. Just don’t expect the same production. The sack totals will likely go up, but I can foresee more than one more TD over the final nine games. That said, play them with confidence.
CHICAGO BEARS
State of the team: Many prognosticators thought Chicago would struggle this season after not improving their offense in the offseason. But the Bears have played well and are tied with Green Bay atop the division at 4-3. Kyle Orton has taken the reins of the offense and done well and the defense has done its job of creating havoc and turnovers. Chicago has won a number of shootout (surprisingly) and may make a run at the division. Four of Chicago’s next nine games are division games, so really its own fate is in its hands. Win three of those four games and the Bears could win the division. More likely, Chicago will split them, finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs with Minnesota.
Fantasy playoff schedule: JAGUARS, SAINTS, at Packers
QB: Orton had a touch start to the season, throwing for a total of 299 yards in a win at Indy and a loss at Carolina. But since, Orton is averaging 274 ypg and has tossed 2 scores pg. Those are impressive numbers and are good enough to find their way to a starting fantasy lineup. The question is, will it likely continue? I say no. Orton has improved, but you can’t expect those numbers against defenses like Tennessee, Green Bay (twice) and Jacksonville. He’s carved out a nice role, and deserves a spot on a team in any league, but I wouldn’t lock him into your lineup just yet. Wait and see and if your desperate play him against the likes of Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans.
RB: Matt Forte is quietly putting together one of the best rookie campaigns for a running back since … well Adrian Peterson. But anyway, Forte is sure making Cedric Benson look terrible. The rookie out of Tulane is averagine 105 total yg and has six TDs. His worst game yardage-wise was in Week 7 against Detroit (61 yards) was offset by two scores. He’s put up good numbers and he’s done it consistently. He finds a way into your lineup every week. Kevin Jones looks fully recovered from his knee injury, but he’s been completely overshadowed by Forte. He ran for 36 yards in that Detroit game, but other than that, and Week 1 when he was still splitting carries with Forte officially, has been getting 1-3 carries pg. He’s useless unless Forte goes down.
Receivers: Chicago spent the offseason grooming Devin Hester to be its big-play guy in the offense and fantasy owners took a chance on him late because of it. It didn’t look good at the outset. Hester had one catch in each of the first two games for a total of 13 yards and then missed the third game with a rib injury. But starting in Week 4, Hester started to pay dividends. Hester has averaged a respectable 50 ypg since then, including a breakout game of 6 catches for 86 yards against Atlanta. He’s only scored twice, but the best might be yet to come for him. Opposing teams have kicked short lately, completely taking Hester away from the return game. Because of that the Bears may be looking to get him even more involved in the offense just to get the ball in his hands. He’s not a bad flex option at this point, especially if Brandon Lloyd remains sidelined with a knee injury. At the beginning of the season it looked like Lloyd was going to be the No. 1 guy here. He was averaging more than 62 ypg before the injury derailed his season. He is questionable to go this Sunday. His addition will hurt Hester’s production and will completely nullify Rashied Davis, who has been posting decent numbers since Lloyd went down. TE Greg Olsen is averaging more than 40 ypg and has two scores. He’s been consistently sound and isn’t a bad option if you’re desperate at the position.
Defense As usual the Bears’ D finds itself at the top of the fantasy defensive rankings, especially in leagues that count special teams. Usually it’s Hester scoring the touchdowns on returns, but he has yet to return a punt or kick for a score this season. This year it’s been punt and kick blocks that have score twice and at to that three other defensive scores and you have a star defensive unit. Chicago likely won’t score as many defensive touchdowns over the next nine games, but they’ll improve the sack number (14) and will likely double its turnover number (16), which means more and more points. This is a must-start unit if you’re lucky enough to own it.
DETROIT LIONS
State of the team: Poor Detroit. The Lions have been abysmal since Barry Sanders left and it looks like it’s only going to get worse before it gets better. This is a lost season and now that the team has fired Matt Millen the ax is hovering above the head of Rod Marinelli. They’ll be lucky to win two games this season and they just traded away Roy Williams for draft picks. The good news: They have the most fascinating, fun-to-watch WR in football in Calvin Johnson.
Fantasy playoff schedule: VIKINGS, at Colts, SAINTS
QB: Since absent-mindedly running out of the end zone against Minnesota, Dan Orlovsky hasn’t made that many mistakes. The problem is he hasn’t done too much good either. Orlovsky hasn’t thrown an interception since the game against Chicago, but he’s only thrown three TDs in three games and hasn’t eclipsed 265 yards. It remains to be seen if he’s got what it takes to be an NFL quarterback. What doesn’t remain to be seen is if he’s a fantasy QB this season. He’s not.
RB: Rudi Johnson killed any fantasy value in this backfield – what there was to begin with anyway. Kevin Smith was slated to be the starter entering the season, but the rookie out of Central Florida has been splitting carries with Johnson since the ex-Bengal came on board. Johnson has 54 carries to Smith’s 56. It’s an even distribution nearly all the way around, with Johnson at a high of 83 yards against San Francisco and Smith at 62 against Minnesota. Smith bests Johnson with 3 touchdowns to 1 and his pass-catching ability (22/146). This is basically a long way to say neither of these guys is a good option in fantasy unless one gets injured, and even then, it’s borderline.
Receivers: Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature. Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 235, Johnson can battle any DB and with all kinds of speed he can run past them as well – his 96-yard TD catch against Houston two weeks ago proved that. With Roy Williams in Dallas, the only problem here is Orlovsky. Can the inexperienced QB get Johnson the ball? I think the coaching staff will start to take the chains off Orlovsky a bit over the next nine games and that might mean better numbers for Johnson. Don’t expect the kind of numbers that will make Johnson the best WR in the game in a few years, but he’ll likely finish the season with 1250 yards and 10 TDs, giving him 650+ yards and 5 TDs over the next nine games. He’s going to have some stinkers, but he’ll also have some 7/150/2 games. Stick with him and play him. There’s nothing else here.
Defense You’re kidding, right? The 15 sacks is respectable, but this unit gets run over on a weekly basis (The Lions are giving up more than 27 ppg) and don’t expect the seven turnovers to more than double. Avoid.
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