This is Part III of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go:
CAROLINA PANTHERS
State of the team: With Jake Delhomme back behind center, the Panthers are having a solid season once again. Carolina is tied with Tampa Bay for first in the South and has a number of quality wins, including last week’s thumping of division rival New Orleans. If Carolina wins Sunday against Arizona, it could realistically reel off three more wins (at Raiders, LIONS, at Falcons) to all but seal a playoff spot. Expect the Panthers to win 11 games and win the South.
Fantasy playoff schedule: BUCS, BRONCOS, at Giants
QB: Delhomme is an efficient quarterback who tops out at about 280 yards and two scores. He’s just not going to give you much more than that. The problem is he has too many clunkers (e.g. 191 yards, 0 TD vs. Minn.) to be trusted as a No. 1 fantasy QB. He’s also going to have trouble in the fantasy playoffs with Tampa Bay coming to town and then going on the road to the Giants. You could probably get some nice numbers from Delhomme over the next five weeks, but after that don’t trust him.
RB: John Fox has taken a page from the book of Mike Shanahan. With Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both running well this season, Fox is usually riding the hot guy each week. In week 1 it was Williams (18 carries, 86 yards) then Stewart got the call in week 2 (14/77/2 TDs). I was high on Williams before the season because I felt Stewart wouldn’t stay healthy for the entire season. So far he has, which has made Williams basically useless. Stewart has been more consistent than Williams (and has scored more), but again you can’t predict what week Fox will give most of the carries to Williams and leave Stewart owners pulling their hair out. The fact is, unlike Tennessee, Carolina’s offense is too diversified, so unless the Panthers are playing K.C. (Williams and Stewart combined to run for 200 yards vs. the Chiefs) or one of these guys gets hurt you can’t trust either of them.
Receivers: After missing the first two games because of suspension, Steve Smith seems to be rounding into midseason form. He’s gone over the century mark in his past two games and has six catches in his previous four games. He’s a must-start every week and could be a difference maker in the playoffs. Back in Carolina, Muhsin Muhammad has become a productive receiver once again. He has yet to catch less than three balls in a game and his 147-yard performance against Atlanta showed that he’s still got it. The problems is with Smith gaining steam, Muhammad is going to continue to see his numbers decrease. He’s nothing more than a flex option and really not a good one at that. D.J. Hackett and Jeff King are a waste of time.
Defense Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed many points (14 pg), but has yet to really make a difference in the sack (11) and takeaway category (9). Like Delhomme, the defensive unit could put up some nice numbers over the next five weeks. With a guy like Julius Peppers, expect the sack numbers to increase and with Kurt Warner the turnover machine coming to town this week that takeaway number could double. But with three competent offenses in the fantasy playoffs I don’t see them giving you bunches of points when you’ll need them most.
ATLANTA FALCONS
State of the team: The Falcons are a nice surprise this season. After everything that could have possibly gone wrong did in 2007, Atlanta has four wins this season, including an impressive road win against Green Bay. Just don’t expect it to last. Matt Ryan has been great behind center but the law of rookie quarterbacks says that most struggle mightily no matter how physically gifted or mentally prepared they are (see Peyton Manning). It’s just a matter of time. I see this Sunday’s matchup with Philadelphia as the beginning of some of those tough lessons for Ryan. Expect Eagles D coordinator Jim Johnson to blitz Ryan unmercifully Sunday. I’m not saying the Falcons won’t win another game – heck they have Oakland in two weeks – but they’ll likely finish 7-9 and fantasy owners need to take that into consideration.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Saints, BUCS, at Vikings
QB: For a rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan has been exceptional. He’s thrown multiple picks in only one game and has yet to lose a fumble. For a rookie quarterback that’s amazing. In terms of fantasy, however, he’s been just mediocre. He has as many multiple touchdown games as multiple interception games and only one game in which he threw for more than 200 yards. Focusing on its defense and run game, Atlanta is doing the right thing with Ryan. It just makes him unplayable in fantasy.
RB: Given his first chance at his very own starting gig, Michael Turner busted onto the scene in Week 1, rushing for 220 yards and a pair of TDs. He’s been up-and-down since, literally. Since running wild over Detroit in the opener, his rushing numbers look like this: 42, 104, 56, 121, 54. He’s scored four times since week 1, but three came in a big win against porous K.C. Turner seems to post big numbers when Atlanta wins, which I believe doesn’t bode well for him over the next nine weeks. I could see Turner having nice games against Oakland, New Orleans (twice) and Denver. But with Tampa Bay and Minnesota in Weeks 15 and 16, when it comes to the fantasy playoffs I think Turner will be a dud. Besides trading him (which I’d recommend doing after the Raiders game while his stock his high), Turner owners are stuck because he has distinguished himself as a must-start. After years of being the fantasy siren song, Jerious Norwood has actually put up some nice numbers this season (9 touches, 57 yards pg) as a change-of-pace back. But unless Turner gets hurt or the Falcons offense morphs into the Saints offense (Norwood as Reggie Bush), he’s nothing more than a bench-warmer or desperate flex option in 12-team leagues.
Receivers: Besides Week 1, Roddy White has been the Falcons leading receiver and has distinguished himself as a top-15 fantasy WR. He’s averaging nearly 100 yards pg and has scored in half of his games, including the past two in which he’s posted great numbers (17 catches, 244 yards, 2 TDs). Since Ryan has little else to throw the ball to, White is a must-start, but I don’t see him putting up more than three great games over the next nine. With Ryan’s numbers likely declining over the next nine weeks, and White getting even more attention from defenses, he’ll have a harder time posting those big numbers. But like Turner, White owners are painted into a corner, forced to play him because of what he’s done in Atlanta’s fast start. If you can parlay White’s good start and deal him for someone like Steve Smith or Jerricho Cotchery, do it.
Defense With just 10 sacks and eight takeaways, Atlanta’s defense is in the bottom half of the league. It’ll likely stay there. Don’t bother.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
State of the team: The formula for the Tampa Bay Bucs is simple: control the game with a ferocious defense and ball-control offense, which relies on a decent run game and short passing plays (and the occasional deep hook up to Antonio Bryant). So far it’s worked. Tampa Bay is 5-2 and tied with Carolina for first in the South. But I can’t help but think they’ve been doing it with smoke and mirrors. I mean they’ve had either Brian Griese or Jeff Garcia behind center and Earnest Graham or Warrick Dunn lugging the rock. That just smells like a breakdown waiting to happen. Like last year, though, they’ll probably win 6 more games and get into the playoffs – only to be crushed in the first round again.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Panthers, at Falcons, CHARGERS
QB: Talk about hit-and-miss. Whether it’s Griese or Garcia, these are the numbers for the passing game through seven games for Tampa Bay: 221, 160, 407, 149, 93, 173, 310. I mean, c’mon that’s ridiculous. Throw in the fact that Jon Gruden just rides whoever is hot and you can’t trust either of these guys for more than a spot start against a team like Kansas City, which Tampa Bay takes on next week (just make sure Garcia is still starting).
RB: If you drafted Earnest Graham in the second round based on what he did last year then you can’t really complain. He’s actually on pace to rush for 1042 yards compared to 898 last season and he’s on pace to score nine touchdowns compared to 10 a year ago (Graham didn’t run much in Tampa Bay’s first two games last season, but you get the point). He’s not likely going to lead you to a championship (unless he’s your third RB and used as a flex option), but you knew what you were getting when you drafted him. Warrick Dunn has 423 yards rushing this season, but he rarely scores and he’s too old to be a difference maker. Even if Graham goes down, he’s not worth much. Let’s move on.
Receivers: With Joey Galloway hobbled since Week 2, Antonio Bryant has stepped into the Bucs’ No. 1 receiver role nicely. He’s had three quality starts, but he’s also had two mediocre ones and two clunkers (0 catches in Week 2). If you’re counting on him for ore than a couple spot starts, you’re in trouble. Galloway is expected back this week, but unless you have the deepest of benches leave him alone until he proves he’s healthy (even if he is though Gruden may elect to keep feeding Bryant. The Bucs coach called Galloway out last week, saying he was the team’s white tiger because he makes an appearance every six months). The Bucs TE situation seems to be a two-man show between Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens. Smith seems to be the more consistent of the two (at least one catch in every game), while Stevens is the more explosive (the former Seahawk has the two best games by a Tampa Bay TE this season). I’d avoid both, but if you have to choose go with Smith.
Defense This unit continues to be the star of this team. In normal scoring formats, Tampa Bay’s defense is rated No. 2 – Chicago and its five TDs is generally No. 1 – but I think they’re the best. Giving up just 14 points pg and having 15 takeaways and four defensive scores are great numbers, but the best I think is the 11 sacks. Why? Because it means there’s room for more and fantasy owners that have the Bucs defense can be confident that number will likely triple over the next nine weeks.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
State of the team: The Saints are in a bit of a free fall. Sitting at 3-4, New Orleans is coming off a bad loss at Carolina in which they lost star running back Reggie Bush to a knee injury and had to endure the mouth of Jeremy Shockey afterward. Throw in the fact that two players, including Deuce McAllister, were reportedly caught in violation of the league’s steroid policy and you have a team with some issues. This Sunday they find themselves in London to take on an angry Chargers team. I can see New Orleans cobbling together five more wins this season, but they aren’t making the playoffs.
Fantasy playoff schedule: FALCONS, at Bears, at Lions
QB: Despite New Orleans struggles and the loss of Marques Colston in Week 1, Drew Brees just keeps on posting good numbers. I think the loss of Bush will hurt, but it’ll likely be offset by the addition of Colston. Whatever he’s got going on around him Brees is a must-start every week and could lead some teams to a championship with Bush expected back by Week 14 and that schedule. The passing defenses for Atlanta (26th in the NFL), Chicago (30th) and Detroit (31st) are all giving up at least 230 ypg through the air.
RB: Before he got injured, Bush was enjoying his best season to date. The third-year pro was averaging 100 total ypg and had five touchdowns (eight if your league counts individual return TDs). Now it looks like he’ll be out at least a month probably more. Bush owners can only hope he’ll be back for the fantasy playoffs, but even then if he is how healthy will he be? I’d check if there’s an owner out there that’s got a deep team and may want to gamble on Bush and see if he’ll deal someone like Steve Slaton for Bush. More likely Bush owners can only hope he’ll be back before Week 14 and be rounding into shape by the fantasy playoffs. As for McAllister I’m guessing he’s going to be suspended four games. It’s not like you were playing him anyway. What this does do, however, is open up a spot for Pierre Thomas to shine. He proved in last season’s finale (226 total yards, 1 TD) that he can carry the load. If McAllister does get suspended and you’re desperate for a running back try out Thomas. You could do worse. Aaron Stecker will be filling in for Bush, but I don’t see him putting up numbers worth a play.
Receivers: Hampered by a splint on his hand, Marques Colston was terrible in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Don’t expect that to last. Colston should start to look like his old self starting Sunday against the Chargers. If you drafted Colston and sat on him over the past six weeks go ahead and start playing him with confidence. As for the potpourrie of other Saints WR – Devery Henderson, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem – who all saw some success during Colston’s absence, Moore will probably be the one that continues to put up decent numbers. He’s not worth more than a third WR spot, however.
Defense With Bush’s return numbers now gone, this defense becomes completely useless. Not to mention, DE Will Smith was the other guy caught up in the steroid violation with McAllister and you have a unit that will give up a lot points, not get many sacks or turnovers. Avoid.
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